การวิเคราะห์เพื่อการตกลงใจ (Decision Making and Problem Solving) บรรยายครั้งที่ ๑ หลักสูตรนายทหารอาวุโส ๓ พฤศจิการยน ๒๕๕๓ นาวาโท สมชาย น้อยพิทักษ์ อาจารย์กองวิชาความมั่นคงฯ ฝวก.ยศ.ทร.

ประวัติผู้บรรยาย การศึกษา: การรับราชการ: งานวิจัยที่สนใจ: D.Sc. (System Engineering/ORMS), GWU, USA M.S. (OR), GWU, USA B.Eng., RNEC, UK International Midshipman, BRNC, UK ตท.๒๙ นายเรือ๘๖ หลักสูตรนายทหารประจำเรือ หลักสูตรนายทหารพรรคนาวิน หลักสูตรเสนาธิการทหารเรือ Australian Command and Staff, Australia GradDip of Strategy in Defence Studies, Australia การรับราชการ: ต้นหน ร.ล.ทยานชล ต้นหน ร.ล.มกุฎราชกุมาร อาจารย์ โรงเรียนนายเรือ อาจารย์ กวมศ.ฝวก.ยศ.ทร. งานวิจัยที่สนใจ: Optimization in Manpower Planning Multiple Criteria Decision Making

ความสัมพันธ์ของหัวข้อวิชา หมวดวิชาเสนาธิการกิจ ตอนที่ ๓ การบริหารงาน ชุดวิชาที่ ๑ หลักการและเทคนิคการบริหาร ชุดวิชาที่ ๒ การวิเคราะห์และตกลงใจ หัวข้อวิชา การวิเคราะห์เพื่อการตกลงใจ หัวข้อวิชา แนวทางการวิจัยปฏิบัติการ หัวข้อวิชา การวิเคราะห์ค่าใช้จ่าย หัวข้อวิชา การควบคุมข่ายงาน ชุดวิชาที่ ๓ จิตวิทยาและภาวะผู้นำ เพื่อให้ นศ.เห็นความสัมพันธ์ของหัวข้อวิชาที่ได้ศึกษามาแล้ว และกำลังจะศึกษาใน ชม.นี้ และการนำไปประยุกต์ใช้ต่อไปในการสัมมนาของ นศ.

วัตถุประสงค์การเรียนรู้ เพื่อให้ทราบทฤษฎีและหลักการของวิเคราะห์เพื่อการตกลงใจ (Decision Making) และการแก้ปัญหา (Problem Solving) เพื่อให้สามารถประยุกต์กระบวนการตกลงใจช่วยในการแก้ปัญหาในสถานการณ์ต่างๆ ได้อย่างประสิทธิภาพมากขึ้น การศึกษาในหัวข้อวิชา

ขอบเขตการศึกษา ความสำคัญ ทฤษฎีและหลักการการวิเคราะห์เพื่อการตกลงใจ (Decision Making) ขั้นตอนการวิเคราะห์เพื่อการตกลงใจ เพื่อตอบสนองต่อเป้าที่กำหนดไว้ข้างต้น เราจะศึกษาในขอบเขตเนื้อหาต่อไปนี้

References การตัดสินใจ http://www.radompon.com/resourcecenter/?q=node/41 Decision Making Techniques http://www.mindtools.com/pages/main/newMN_TED.htm KEYWORDS: Decision Making, Problem Solving, Critical Thinking

ตัวอย่างปัญหา รถสตาร์ทไม่ติด ต้องการซื้อบ้าน ตัดสินใจแต่งงาน

ปัจจุบันเราตัดสินใจใช้หลักเกณฑ์อะไร Pros and Cons – รายละเอียดข้อดี-ข้อด้อย Simple Prioritization – การจัดลำดับทางเลือก Satisficing – ยอมรับ / พึงพอใจ Flipism, Astrology, etc. – การเสี่ยงดวง ฯลฯ Some of the decision making techniques people use in everyday life include: Pros and Cons: Listing the advantages and disadvantages of each option, popularized by Plato and Benjamin Franklin Simple Prioritization: Choosing the alternative with the highest probability-weighted utility for each alternative (see Decision Analysis) or derivative Possibilianism: Acting on choices so as not to preclude alternative understandings of equal probability, including active exploration of novel possibilities and emphasis on the necessity of holding multiple positions at once if there is no available data to privilege one over the others. Satisficing: Accepting the first option that seems like it might achieve the desired result Acquiesce to a person in authority or an "expert", just following orders Flipism: Flipping a coin, cutting a deck of playing cards, and other random or coincidence methods Prayer, tarot cards, astrology, augurs, revelation, or other forms of divination

Decision Making vs. Problem Solving How to make good decisions – การตัดสินใจทางเลือกที่ดี Problem Solving Tools help you solve complicated problems – เครื่องมือช่วยในการแก้ปัญหา It's important to differentiate between problem analysis and decision making. The concepts are completely separate from one another. Problem analysis must be done first, then the information gathered in that process may be used towards decision making. Problem Analysis • Analyze performance, what should the results be against what they actually are • Problems are merely deviations from performance standards • Problem must be precisely identified and described • Problems are caused by some change from a distinctive feature • Something can always be used to distinguish between what has and hasn't been effected by a cause • Causes to problems can be deducted from relevant changes found in analyzing the problem • Most likely cause to a problem is the one that exactly explains all the facts Decision Making • Objectives must first be established • Objectives must be classified and placed in order of importance • Alternative actions must be developed • The alternative must be evaluated against all the objectives • The alternative that is able to achieve all the objectives is the tentative decision • The tentative decision is evaluated for more possible consequences • The decisive actions are taken, and additional actions are taken to prevent any adverse consequences from becoming problems and starting both systems (problem analysis and decision making) all over again

What is Decision Making? “Decision making is the study of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values and preferences of the decision maker” “การตัดสินใจคือการหาทางเลือกที่ดีที่สุด (เหมาะสมที่สุด) บนพื้นฐาน/ข้อจำกัดที่ผู้ตัดสินใจกำหนดขึ้น” Making a decision implies that there are alternative choices to be considered, and in such a case we want not only to identify as many of these alternatives as possible but to choose the one that (1) has the highest probability of success or effectiveness and (2) best fits with our goals, desires, lifestyle, values, and so on.

What is Decision Making? “Decision making is the process of sufficiently reducing uncertainty and doubt about alternatives to allow a reasonable choice to be made from among them” “กระบวนการลดความเสี่ยงในทางเลือก” This definition stresses the information-gathering function of decision making. It should be noted here that uncertainty is reduced rather than eliminated. Very few decisions are made with absolute certainty because complete knowledge about all the alternatives is seldom possible. Thus, every decision involves a certain amount of risk. If there is no uncertainty, you do not have a decision; you have an algorithm--a set of steps or a recipe that is followed to bring about a fixed result.

การตัดสินใจ (Decision Making) การตัดสินใจที่กำหนดไว้ล่วงหน้า  (Program decision) การตัดสินใจที่ไม่ได้กำหนดไว้ล่วงหน้า (Non–Program decision) การตัดสินใจ(Decision  Making) หมายถึง  กระบวนการหาทางเลือกที่เหมาะสมที่สุด  จากทางเลือกหลายๆทางที่ได้พิจารณาแล้วว่าเป็นทางเลือกที่สามารถทำให้องค์การบรรลุเป้าหมายได้การตัดสินใจเป็นสิ่งสำคัญมากในการบริหารจัดการ  เพราะจะต้องทำการตัดสินใจทุกๆ  ขั้นตอนในการปฏิบัติตามหน้าที่ทางการบริหาร(Management  Function)  เริ่มตั้งแต่การตัดสินใจในเรื่องการวางแผน  การจัดองค์การ  บริหารงานบุคคลการสั่งการ  การประสานงานและการควบคุม           การตัดสินใจเป็นกระบวนการของการหาโอกาสที่จะการหาทางเลือกที่เป็นไปได้  และการเลือกทางเลือกที่มีอยู่หลายๆ  ทางเลือกและได้แบ่งการตัดสินใจออกเป็น  2  ชนิด  คือ           1.  การตัดสินใจที่กำหนดไว้ล่วงหน้า  (Program decision) เป็นการตัดสินใจตามระเบียบ  กฎเกณฑ์  แบบแผนที่เคยปฏิบัติมาจนกลายเป็นงานประจำ(Routine)  เช่นการตัดสินใจเกี่ยวกับการลาของพนักงาน  การอนุมัติการเบิกจ่ายเงินไปราชการ  การอนุมัติการใช้อาคารสถานที่  เป็นต้น  การตัดสินใจแบบกำหนดไว้ล่วงหน้านี้  จะเปิดโอกาสให้ผู้บริหารเลือกทางเลือกได้น้อย  เพราะเป็นการตัดสินใจภายใต้สถานการณ์ที่แน่นอน           2.  การตัดสินใจที่ไม่ได้กำหนดไว้ล่วงหน้า  (Non – Program  decision)  เป็นการตัดสินใจในเรื่องใหม่ที่ไม่เคยมีมาก่อน  และไม่มีกฎเกณฑ์ไม่มีระเบียบ  จึงเป็นเรื่องที่ลำบากใจกับผู้บริหารพอสมควร  ซึ่งบางครั้งผู้บริหารจะต้องคิดถึงเรื่องความเสี่ยงและความไม่แน่นอนที่จะเกิดขึ้นด้วยเช่นการตัดสินใจที่จะออกผลิตภัณฑ์ใหม่  การตัดสินใจที่จะขยายสาขาของธุรกิจเพิ่ม  การตัดสินใจที่จะลงทุนในธุรกิจตัวใหม่  เป็นต้น

Difficult Decisions involve: ความไม่แน่นอน (Uncertainty) - Many facts may not be known ความซับซ้อน (Complexity) - Consider many interrelated factors ผลกระทบที่ตามมาสูง (High-risk consequences) - The impact of the decision may be significant แต่ละหนทางปฏิบัติมีความเป็นอัตลักษณ์และผลกระทบที่แตกต่างกัน (Alternatives) - Each has its own set of uncertainties and consequences ปัญหาส่วนตัว (Interpersonal issues) - difficult to predict how other people will react All of us have to make decisions every day. Some decisions are relatively straightforward and simple: Is this report ready to send to my boss now? Others are quite complex: Which of these candidates should I select for the job? Simple decisions usually need a simple decision-making process. But difficult decisions typically involve issues like these: Uncertainty - Many facts may not be known. Complexity - You have to consider many interrelated factors. High-risk consequences - The impact of the decision may be significant. Alternatives - Each has its own set of uncertainties and consequences. Interpersonal issues - It can be difficult to predict how other people will react. With these difficulties in mind, the best way to make a complex decision is to use an effective process. Clear processes usually lead to consistent, high-quality results, and they can improve the quality of almost everything we do. In this article, we outline a process that will help improve the quality of your decisions.

Decision Under Uncertainty Difficult Decision Decision Tree for evaluating a project with uncertainty

Decision Under Complexity Difficult Decision ปัจจัยที่ต้องพิจารณาเพื่อการตัดสินใจมาก

High-risk consequences Difficult Decision ผลกระทบจากการตัดสินใจปฏิบัติสูง

Decision Making Strategies Optimizing (บรรยายในหัวข้อแนวทางการวิจัยปฏิบัติการ) Satisficing (satisfactory and sufficient) Maximax (maximize the maximums) Optimist (risk taking) Maximin (maximize the minimums) Pessimist (risk avoiding) Some Decision Making Strategies As you know, there are often many solutions to a given problem, and the decision maker's task is to choose one of them. The task of choosing can be as simple or as complex as the importance of the decision warrants, and the number and quality of alternatives can also be adjusted according to importance, time, resources and so on. There are several strategies used for choosing. Among them are the following: 1. Optimizing. This is the strategy of choosing the best possible solution to the problem, discovering as many alternatives as possible and choosing the very best. How thoroughly optimizing can be done is dependent on A. importance of the problem B. time available for solving it C. cost involved with alternative solutions D. availability of resources, knowledge E. personal psychology, values Note that the collection of complete information and the consideration of all alternatives is seldom possible for most major decisions, so that limitations must be placed on alternatives. 2. Satisficing. In this strategy, the first satisfactory alternative is chosen rather than the best alternative. If you are very hungry, you might choose to stop at the first decent looking restaurant in the next town rather than attempting to choose the best restaurant from among all (the optimizing strategy). The word satisficing was coined by combining satisfactory and sufficient. For many small decisions, such as where to park, what to drink, which pen to use, which tie to wear, and so on, the satisficing strategy is perfect. 3. Maximax. This stands for "maximize the maximums." This strategy focuses on evaluating and then choosing the alternatives based on their maximum possible payoff. This is sometimes described as the strategy of the optimist, because favorable outcomes and high potentials are the areas of concern. It is a good strategy for use when risk taking is most acceptable, when the go-for-broke philosophy is reigning freely. 4. Maximin. This stands for "maximize the minimums." In this strategy, that of the pessimist, the worst possible outcome of each decision is considered and the decision with the highest minimum is chosen. The Maximin orientation is good when the consequences of a failed decision are particularly harmful or undesirable. Maximin concentrates on the salvage value of a decision, or of the guaranteed return of the decision. It's the philosophy behind the saying, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." Quiz shows exploit the uncertainty many people feel when they are not quite sure whether to go with a maximax strategy or a maximin one: "Okay, Mrs. Freen, you can now choose to take what you've already won and go home, or risk losing it all and find out what's behind door number three." Example: I could put my $10,000 in a genetic engineering company, and if it creates and patents a new bacteria that helps plants resist frost, I could make $50,000. But I could also lose the whole $10,000. But if I invest in a soap company, I might make only $20,000, but if the company goes completely broke and gets liquidated, I'll still get back $7,000 of my investment, based on its book value. Example: It's fourth down and ten yards to go on your twenty yard line. Do you go for a long pass or punt? Maximax would be to pass; Maximin would be to punt.

ขั้นตอนการตัดสินใจ ระบุปัญหา (Define problem) ระบุข้อจำกัดของปัจจัยต่างๆ (Identify limitation factors) พัฒนาทางเลือก (Develop alternatives) วิเคราะห์ทางเลือก (Analysis the alternatives) เลือกทางเลือกที่ดีที่สุด (Select the best alternative) นำทางเลือกไปปฏิบัติ (Implementation) สร้างระบบควบคุมและประเมินผล (Control & Evaluation) ขั้นตอนการตัดสินใจ  สามารถแบ่งออกได้เป็นดังนี้ คือ           ขั้นที่ 1  การระบุปัญหา(Define problem)  เป็นขั้นตอนแรกที่มีความสำคัญอย่างมาก  เพราะจะต้องระบุปัญหาได้ถูกต้อง  จึงจะดำเนินการตัดสินใจในขั้นตอนต่อๆ  ไปได้           ขั้นที่  2  การระบุข้อจำกัดของปัจจัย(Identify  limiting  factors)   เป็นการระบุปัญหาได้ถูกต้องแล้ว   นำไปพิจารณาถึงข้อจำกัดต่างๆ  ขององค์กร  โดยพิจารณาจากทรัพยากรซึ่งเป็นองค์ประกอบของกระบวนการผลิต           ขั้นที่  3  การพัฒนาทางเลือก(Development  alternative)  ขั้นตอนที่ผู้บริหารต้องพัฒนาทางเลือกต่างๆขึ้นมาซึ่งทางเลือกเหล่านี้ควรเป็นทางเลือกที่มีศักยภาพและมีความเป็นไปได้ในการแก้ปัญหาให้น้อยลงหรืให้ประโยชน์สูงสุด  เช่น  เพิ่มการทำงานกะพิเศษ  เพิ่มการทำงานล่วงเวลาโดยใช้ตารางปกติ  เพิ่มจำนวนพนักงาน           ขั้นที่  4    การวิเคราะห์ทางเลือก(Analysis  the   altematives)  เมื่อได้ทำการพัฒนาทางเลือกต่างๆ  โดยนำเอาข้อดีข้อเสียของแต่ละทางเลือกมาเปรียบเทียบกันอย่างรอบคอบ  ควรพิจารณาว่าทางเลือกนั้นนำมาใช้  จะเกิดผลต่อเนื่องอะไรตามมา           ขั้นที่ 5  การเลือกทางเลือกที่ดีที่สุด(Select  the  best alternative)  เมื่อผู้บริหารได้ทำการวิเคราะห์  และประเมินทางเลือกต่างๆ  แล้ว  ผู้บริหารควรเปรียบเทียบข้อดีและข้อเสียของแต่ละทางเลือกอีกครั้งหนึ่งเพื่อพิจารณาว่าทางเลือกที่ดีที่สุดเพียงทางเดียว           ขั้นที่ 6  การนำผลการตัดสินใจไปปฏิบัติ(Implernent  the  decision)  เมื่อผู้บริหารได้หาทางเลือกที่ดีที่สุดแล้ว  ก็ควรมีการนำผลการตัดสินใจนั้นไปปฏิบัติ  เพื่อให้การดำเนินงานเป็นไปอย่างมีประสิทธิภาพ           ขั้นที่ 7  การสร้างระบบควบคุมและประเมินผล(Establish  a  control  and  evaluation  system)  เป็นขั้นตอนสุดท้ายของกระบวนการตัดสินใจ  ได้แก่การสร้างระบบการควบคุมและประเมินผลซึ่งจะช่วยให้ผู้บริหารได้รับข้อมูลย้อนกลับที่เกี่ยวกับผลการปฏิบัติงานว่าเป็นไปตามเป้าหมายหรือไม่  ข้อมูลย้อนกลับจะช่วยให้ผู้บริหารแก้ปัญหาหรือทำการตัดสินใจใหม่ได้  หรือ อีกข่ายหนึ่งใช้ There are six steps to making an effective decision: Create a constructive environment. Generate good alternatives. Explore these alternatives. Choose the best alternative. Check your decision. Communicate your decision, and take action.

Decision Making Steps - McMahon 2007 Outline your goal and outcome (กำหนดเป้าหมาย) Gather data (รวบรวมข้อมูล) Brainstorm to develop alternatives (กำหนดทางเลือก) List pros and cons of each alternative (หาข้อดี/ข้อเสียในแต่ละทางเลือกที่กำหนดไว้) Make the decision (ตัดสินใจเลือกหนทางที่ดีที่สุด) Immediately take action (Implement) (นำไปปฏิบัติ) Learn from, and reflect on the decision making (ประเมิน) When in an organization and faced with a difficult decision, there are several steps one can take to ensure the best possible solutions will be decided. These steps are put into seven effective ways to go about this decision making process (McMahon 2007). The first step - Outline your goal and outcome. This will enable decision makers to see exactly what they are trying to accomplish and keep them on a specific path. The second step - Gather data. This will help decision makers have actual evidence to help them come up with a solution. The third step - Brainstorm to develop alternatives. Coming up with more than one solution ables you to see which one can actually work. The fourth step - List pros and cons of each alternative. With the list of pros and cons, you can eliminate the solutions that have more cons than pros, making your decision easier. The fifth step - Make the decision. Once you analyze each solution, you should pick the one that has many pros, and the one that everyone can agree with. The sixth step - Immediately take action. Once the decision is picked, you should implement it right away. The seventh step - Learn from, and reflect on the decision making. This step allows you to see what you did right and wrong when coming up, and putting the decision to use.

Decision Making Procedure Identify the decision to be made together with the goals it should achieve (กำหนดเป้าหมาย) Get the facts (รวบรวมข้อมูล) Develop alternatives (สร้างหนทางเลือกที่เป็นไปได้) Rate each alternative (จัดลำดับหนทางที่กำหนด) Rate the risk of each alternative (ตรวจสอบความเสี่ยง) Make the decision (ตัดสินใจเลือกหนทางที่ดีที่สุด) Decision Making Procedure As you read this procedure, remember our discussion earlier about the recursive nature of decision making. In a typical decision making situation, as you move from step to step here, you will probably find yourself moving back and forth also. 1. Identify the decision to be made together with the goals it should achieve. Determine the scope and limitations of the decision. Is the new job to be permanent or temporary or is that not yet known (thus requiring another decision later)? Is the new package for the product to be put into all markets or just into a test market? How might the scope of the decision be changed--that is, what are its possible parameters? When thinking about the decision, be sure to include a clarification of goals: We must decide whom to hire for our new secretary, one who will be able to create an efficient and organized office. Or, We must decide where to go on vacation, where we can relax and get some rest from the fast pace of society. 2. Get the facts. But remember that you cannot get all the facts. Get as many facts as possible about a decision within the limits of time imposed on you and your ability to process them, but remember that virtually every decision must be made in partial ignorance. Lack of complete information must not be allowed to paralyze your decision. A decision based on partial knowledge is usually better than not making the decision when a decision is really needed. The proverb that "any decision is better than no decision," while perhaps extreme, shows the importance of choosing. When you are racing toward a bridge support, you must decide to turn away to the right or to the left. Which way you turn is less important than the fact that you do indeed turn. As part of your collection of facts, list your feelings, hunches, and intuitive urges. Many decisions must ultimately rely on or be influenced by intuition because of the remaining degree of uncertainty involved in the situation. Also as part of your collection of facts, consult those who will be affected by and who will have to implement your decision. Input from these people not only helps supply you with information and help in making the decision but it begins to produce the acceptance necessary in the implementers because they feel that they are part of the decision making process. As Russell Ackoff noted in The Art of Problem Solving, not consulting people involved in a decision is often perceived as an act of aggression. 3. Develop alternatives. Make a list of all the possible choices you have, including the choice of doing nothing. Not choosing one of the candidates or one of the building sites is in itself a decision. Often a non decision is harmful as we mentioned above--not choosing to turn either right or left is to choose to drive into the bridge. But sometimes the decision to do nothing is useful or at least better than the alternatives, so it should always be consciously included in the decision making process. Also be sure to think about not just identifying available alternatives but creating alternatives that don't yet exist. For example, if you want to choose which major to pursue in college, think not only of the available ones in the catalog, but of designing your own course of study. 4. Rate each alternative. This is the evaluation of the value of each alternative. Consider the negative of each alternative (cost, consequences, problems created, time needed, etc.) and the positive of each (money saved, time saved, added creativity or happiness to company or employees, etc.). Remember here that the alternative that you might like best or that would in the best of all possible worlds be an obvious choice will, however, not be functional in the real world because of too much cost, time, or lack of acceptance by others. Also don't forget to include indirect factors in the rating. If you are deciding between machines X, Y, and Z and you already have an employee who knows how to operate machine Z, that fact should be considered. If you are choosing an investigative team to send to Japan to look at plant sites and you have very qualified candidates A, B, and C, the fact that B is a very fast typist, a superior photographer or has some other side benefit in addition to being a qualified team member, should be considered. In fact, what you put on your hobbies and interests line on your resume can be quite important when you apply for a job just because employers are interested in getting people with a good collection of additional abilities. 5. Rate the risk of each alternative. In problem solving, you hunt around for a solution that best solves a particular problem, and by such a hunt you are pretty sure that the solution will work. In decision making, however, there is always some degree of uncertainty in any choice. Will Bill really work out as the new supervisor? If we decide to expand into Canada, will our sales and profits really increase? If we let Jane date Fred at age fifteen, will the experience be good? If you decide to marry person X or buy car Y or go to school Z, will that be the best or at least a successful choice? Risks can be rated as percentages, ratios, rankings, grades or in any other form that allows them to be compared. See the section on risk evaluation for more details on risking. 6. Make the decision. If you are making an individual decision, apply your preferences (which may take into account the preferences of others). Choose the path to follow, whether it includes one of the alternatives, more than one of them (a multiple decision) or the decision to choose none. And of course, don't forget to implement the decision and then evaluate the implementation, just as you would in a problem solving experience. One important item often overlooked in implementation is that when explaining the decision to those involved in carrying it out or those who will be affected by it, don't just list the projected benefits: frankly explain the risks and the drawbacks involved and tell why you believe the proposed benefits outweigh the negatives. Implementers are much more willing to support decisions when they (1) understand the risks and (2) believe that they are being treated with honesty and like adults. Remember also that very few decisions are irrevocable. Don't cancel a decision prematurely because many new plans require time to work--it may take years for your new branch office in Paris to get profitable--but don't hesitate to change directions if a particular decision clearly is not working out or is being somehow harmful. You can always make another decision to do something else.

Six Steps - MindTool Create a constructive environment. Generate good alternatives. Explore these alternatives. Choose the best alternative. Check your decision. Communicate your decision, and take action.

(1) Create a constructive environment Six Steps in DM Establish the objective (กำหนดเป้าหมาย) Involve the right people (ผู้มีส่วนได้ส่วนเสีย) Stakeholder Analysis (ดู diagram) Allow opinions to be heard (รับฟังความคิดเห็นของทุกคน) Make sure you're asking the right question 5 Why?, Six Serving Men, etc. Use creativity tools from the start Concept Fan Use creativity tools from the start To create a constructive environment for successful decision making, make sure you do the following: Establish the objective - Define what you want to achieve. Agree on the process - Know how the final decision will be made, including whether it will be an individual or a team-based decision. The Vroom-Yetton-Jago Model (member only) is a great tool for determining the most appropriate way of making the decision. Involve the right people - Stakeholder Analysis is important in making an effective decision, and you'll want to ensure that you've consulted stakeholders appropriately even if you're making an individual decision. Where a group process is appropriate, the decision-making group - typically a team of five to seven people - should have a good representation of stakeholders. Allow opinions to be heard - Encourage participants to contribute to the discussions, debates, and analysis without any fear of rejection from the group. This is one of the best ways to avoid groupthink (member only). The Stepladder Technique is a useful method for gradually introducing more and more people to the group discussion, and making sure everyone is heard. Also, recognize that the objective is to make the best decision under the circumstances: it's not a game in which people are competing to have their own preferred alternatives adopted. Make sure you're asking the right question - Ask yourself whether this is really the true issue. The 5 Whys technique is a classic tool that helps you identify the real underlying problem that you face. Use creativity tools from the start - The basis of creativity is thinking from a different perspective. Do this when you first set out the problem, and then continue it while generating alternatives. Our article Generating New Ideas will help you create new connections in your mind, break old thought patterns, and consider new perspectives.

Stakeholder Analysis Put enough work in with these people to keep them satisfied, but not so much that they become bored with your message. People you must fully engage with, and make the greatest efforts to satisfy keep these people adequately informed, and talk to them to ensure that no major issues are arising. These people can often be very helpful with the detail of your project. Again, monitor these people, but do not bore them with excessive communication Someone's position on the grid shows you the actions you have to take with them: High power, interested people: these are the people you must fully engage with, and make the greatest efforts to satisfy. High power, less interested people: put enough work in with these people to keep them satisfied, but not so much that they become bored with your message. Low power, interested people: keep these people adequately informed, and talk to them to ensure that no major issues are arising. These people can often be very helpful with the detail of your project. Low power, less interested people: again, monitor these people, but do not bore them with excessive communication.

Concept Fan

ขยายความคิดออกไป

(2) Generate Good Alternatives Six Steps in DM Generating Ideas (ค้นหาข้อมูล) Brainstorming / Reverse Brainstorming Considering Different Perspectives (พิจารณาในมุมมองต่างๆ) 4 Ps (product, planning, potential, and people) Six Thinking Hats Organizing Ideas (รวมรวบข้อมูลเป็นหมวดหมู่) Affinity Diagrams

4 Ps How is a fishbone diagram constructed? Basic Steps: Draw the fishbone diagram.... List the problem/issue to be studied in the "head of the fish". Label each ""bone" of the "fish". The major categories typically utilized are: The 4 M’s: Methods, Machines, Materials, Manpower The 4 P’s: Place, Procedure, People, Policies The 4 S’s: Surroundings, Suppliers, Systems, Skills Note: You may use one of the four categories suggested, combine them in any fashion or make up your own. The categories are to help you organize your ideas. Use an idea-generating technique (e.g., brainstorming) to identify the factors within each category that may be affecting the problem/issue and/or effect being studied. The team should ask... "What are the machine issues affecting/causing..." Repeat this procedure with each factor under the category to produce sub-factors. Continue asking, "Why is this happening?" and put additional segments each factor and subsequently under each sub-factor. Continue until you no longer get useful information as you ask, "Why is that happening?" Analyze the results of the fishbone after team members agree that an adequate amount of detail has been provided under each major category. Do this by looking for those items that appear in more than one category. These become the 'most likely causes". For those items identified as the "most likely causes", the team should reach consensus on listing those items in priority order with the first item being the most probable" cause.

Affinity Diagram Describe the problem or issue Generate ideas by brainstorming Sort ideas into natural themes Create total group consensus Create theme cards

ตัวอย่าง Affinity Diagram Affinity diagrams are great tools for assimilating and understanding large amounts of information. When you work through the process of creating relationships and working backward from detailed information to broad themes, you get an insight you would not otherwise find. The next time you are confronting a large amount of information or number of ideas and you feel overwhelmed at first glance, use the affinity diagram approach to discover all the hidden linkages. And when you cannot see the forest for the trees, an affinity diagram may be exactly what you need to get back in focus.

ตัวอย่าง Affinity Diagram (cont.)

(3) Explore the Alternatives Six Steps in DM Risk Risk Analysis Implications (consequences) Six Thinking Hats Validation Cost-Benefit Analysis Step 3: Explore the Alternatives When you're satisfied that you have a good selection of realistic alternatives, then you'll need to evaluate the feasibility, risks, and implications of each choice. Here, we discuss some of the most popular and effective analytical tools. Risk In decision making, there's usually some degree of uncertainty, which inevitably leads to risk. By evaluating the risk involved with various options, you can determine whether the risk is manageable. Risk Analysis helps you look at risks objectively. It uses a structured approach for assessing threats, and for evaluating the probability of events occurring - and what they might cost to manage. Implications Another way to look at your options is by considering the potential consequences of each. Six Thinking Hats helps you evaluate the consequences of a decision by looking at the alternatives from six different perspectives. Impact Analysis (member only) is a useful technique for brainstorming the ‘unexpected' consequences that may arise from a decision. Validation Determine if resources are adequate, if the solution matches your objectives, and if the decision is likely to work in the long term. Starbursting helps you think about the questions you should ask to evaluate an alternative properly. To assess pros and cons of each option, use Force Field Analysis, or use the Plus-Minus-Interesting approach. Cost-Benefit Analysis looks at the financial feasibility of an alternative. Our Bite-Sized Training session on Project Evaluation and Financial Forecasting (member only) helps you evaluate each alternative using the most popular financial evaluation techniques.

(4) Choose the Best Alternative Six Steps in DM Decision matrix Paired Comparison Analysis Decision Trees (รายละเอียดการคิด บรรยายครั้งที่ ๒) Step 4: Choose the Best Alternative After you have evaluated the alternatives, the next step is to choose between them. The choice may be obvious. However, if it isn't, these tools will help: Grid Analysis, also known as a decision matrix, is a key tool for this type of evaluation. It's invaluable because it helps you bring disparate factors into your decision-making process in a reliable and rigorous way. Use Paired Comparison Analysis to determine the relative importance of various factors. This helps you compare unlike factors, and decide which ones should carry the most weight in your decision. Decision Trees are also useful in choosing between options. These help you lay out the different options open to you, and bring the likelihood of project success or failure into the decision making process.

(5) Check Your Decision Make sense? If possible, simulation Six Steps in DM Make sense? If possible, simulation Step 5: Check Your Decision With all of the effort and hard work that goes into evaluating alternatives, and deciding the best way forward, it's easy to forget to ‘sense check' your decisions. This is where you look at the decision you're about to make dispassionately, to make sure that your process has been thorough, and to ensure that common errors haven't crept into the decision-making process. After all, we can all now see the catastrophic consequences that over-confidence, groupthink, and other decision-making errors have wrought on the world economy. The first part of this is an intuitive step, which involves quietly and methodically testing the assumptions and the decisions you've made against your own experience, and thoroughly reviewing and exploring any doubts you might have. A second part involves using a technique like Blindspot Analysis (member only) to review whether common decision-making problems like over-confidence, escalating commitment, or groupthink (member only) may have undermined the decision-making process. A third part involves using a technique like the Ladder of Inference (member only) to check through the logical structure of the decision with a view to ensuring that a well-founded and consistent decision emerges at the end of the decision-making process.

(6)Communicate Your Decision, and Move to Action Six Steps in DM การสื่อสารเพื่อการปฏิบัติ การกำกับดูแล การประเมิน การ Feedback Once you've made your decision, it's important to explain it to those affected by it, and involved in implementing it. Talk about why you chose the alternative you did. The more information you provide about risks and projected benefits, the more likely people are to support the decision. And with respect to implementation of your decision, our articles on Project Management and Change Management (member only) will help you get this implementation off to a good start! Key Points An organized and systematic decision-making process usually leads to better decisions. Without a well-defined process, you risk making decisions that are based on insufficient information and analysis. Many variables affect the final impact of your decision. However, if you establish strong foundations for decision making, generate good alternatives, evaluate these alternatives rigorously, and then check your decision-making process, you will improve the quality of your decisions.

Problem Analysis & Decision Making ที่มา: Think Improvement®

Example ที่มา: Radiology, ‘Decision making in the face of uncertainty and resource Contraints’, RSNA, 2005 ’

บทสรุป ความสำคัญของการใช้หลักการวิเคราะห์ตกลงใจ (Decision Making) กระบวนการตัดสินใจ เครื่องมือที่ช่วยในการตัดสินใจ

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