พลังงานทดแทนของประเทศไทย เวทีวิเคราะห์นโยบายพลังงาน 11 มกราคม 2548 Chris Greacen Palang Thai www.palangthai.org

Outline Overview of Thai government targets and planned policies for renewable energy Renewable energy potential Power sector planning process Integrated resource planning (IRP)

นโยบายการพัฒนาพลังงานทดแทน TE = Traditional Energy NRE = New & Renewable Energy TE 11% NRE 8% (6,668 KTOE) พลังงาน เชิงพาณิชย์ 81 % (265 ktoe) 2545 52,939 KTOE Cabinet resolution Sept. 2, 2003 2554 83,354 KTOE 2554 81,753 KTOE

เป้าหมายและกลยุทธ์ พลังงานทดแทน Should be 3000 MW Electricity 1,170 KTOE เป้าหมายและกลยุทธ์ พลังงานทดแทน RPS 437 MW - Solar 200 MW Wind 100 MW MSW 100 MW - Biomass - Hydro INCENTIVE 37 MW Electricity Solar 6 MW Wind 0.2 MW Biomass 560 MW RPS Incentive 1,093 MW -Biomass -Hydro RE 8% Heat ~ 0.00 KTOE RE 0.5% Heat (Incentive) 3,900 KTOE Bio fuel ~ 0.00 KTOE Bio Fuel (Incentive) 1,600 KTOE Ethanol 3.0 M liter/day Bio diesel 2.4 M liter/day R & D Math error: 1500 MW should be 3000 MW. Math error derives from assumption of 100% capacity factor for electric renewables. Note – most is from heat. Facilitator 2002 2011 Replacement of imported oil 48 mill. barrels values 96,537 Mill. Baht

Possibility that TE heat is “repackaged” as NRE heat Most TE is heat TE = Traditional Energy NRE = New & Renewable Energy TE 11% NRE 8% (6,668 KTOE) พลังงาน เชิงพาณิชย์ 81 % (265 ktoe) 2545 52,939 KTOE Possibility that TE heat is “repackaged” as NRE heat Most NRE is heat 2554 83,354 KTOE

การผลิตไฟฟ้าจากพลังงานทดแทน จาก 8% ของการใช้พลังงานทดแทน, กำหนดให้มีการผลิตไฟฟ้าจากพลังงานทดแทน = ~2,090 MW ในปี 2554 มาตรการ RPS กำหนดให้โรงไฟฟ้าใหม่ ดำเนินการ Solar Wind MSW(ขยะ) 430 MW Biomass Hydro 1530 MW* (+560 MW) Biomass Small Hydro Solar Home System SPP มาตรการจูงใจและสนับสนุน กำหนดราคารับซื้อไฟฟ้า เงินกู้ดอกเบี้ยต่ำ ลดภาษี 1100 MW * Existing SPP 560 MW MSW=Municipal Solid Waste

มาตรการ RPS Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS): obligates each retail seller of electricity to include in its resource portfolio a certain amount of electricity from renewable energy resources. The retailer can either: (a) owning a renewable energy facility and producing its own power, or (b) purchasing power from someone else's facility. RPS rules can allow retailers to "trade" their obligation. The Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is a new type of market-based policy that obligates each retail seller of electricity to include in its resource portfolio a certain amount of electricity from renewable energy resources. The retailer can satisfy this obligation by either (a) owning a renewable energy facility and producing its own power, or (b) purchasing power from someone else's facility. RPS statutes or rules can allow retailers to "trade" their obligation.

Concerns about Thai RPS In other countries, RPS requires functioning wholesale market Needs independent regulator RPS favors large developers over small RPS has mixed track record In Thai version, only applies to new fossil generation. Ties new renewable development to development of fossil generation Big hydro exempted from obligations In Thai version obligation based on MW rather than GWh encourages gaming See more at: http://www.palangthai.org/en/docs/sustain.pdf

กำหนดราคารับซื้อไฟฟ้า (Feed-in tariff) Paid per kWh of electricity generated a guaranteed power sales price a guaranteed market (electric utilities must take) Favors smaller renewable energy producers Simple Less prone to cheating

German feed-in tariffs decrease every year Solar declines 5% per year for new projects

German feed-in tariffs (not showing solar PV) Biomass declines 1% per year Wind declines 1.5% per year

ที่มียุทธศาสตร์ชัดเจน Ethanol 1,000 KTOE (90% gasoline, 10% ethanol) พลังงานทดแทน ที่มียุทธศาสตร์ชัดเจน Biofuel 1,600 KTOE Biodiesel 600 KTOE 98% diesel, 2% biodiesel

NRE Potential in Thailand High Potential Low Development Small Hydro 700 MW Solar >5,000 MW High Potential Low Development Wind 1,600 MW Biomass 7,000 MW “potential” probably refers to “technical potential” not commercial potential. Peak consumption = 19,000 MW

Wind Energy Potential Map Average speed 4.4 - 6.4 m/sec Power Potential 1,600 MW

Major agricultural residues in 2002/2003 Biomass Potential Major agricultural residues in 2002/2003 Rice husk 5.5 M tons/yr Power potential 560 MW Bagasse 20 M tons/yr Power potential 1400 MW Rhizomes 1.6 M tons/yr Power potential 110 MW 1900 MW? 1200 MW?

Korat Waste to Energy - biogas Uses waste water from cassava to make methane Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity Earns high market returns Developer estimates 300 MW from waste water + 800 MW from wet cake

Korat Waste to Energy - biogas 3 x 1 MW Jenbacher gas generators

Energy conservation potential DSM 2000 to 3000 MW: “Achievable and cost effective DSM” in 1991 (Utility study) IIEC (International Institute for Energy Conservation). 1991. Demand Side Management for Thailand’s Electric Power System: Five-Year Master Plan. Submitted to Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Metropolitan Electricity Authority and Provincial Electricity Authority, Bangkok, Thailand. Bangkok, Thailand. November. No systematic evaluation since 1991.

Cogeneration potential 8610 MW cogen installed as of 2001 http://www.jxj.com/magsandj/cospp/2002_05/cogen_southeast_asia.html Since 1998, utilities accepting no new cogen. At least 3,000 MW of additional cogen had applied and have not been accepted.

Planning Conventional approach Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) Risk

Conventional planning approach Demand forecast – determined by committee comprising mainly government (EPPO), and utilities (EGAT,MEA, PEA) Power Development Plan (PDP) -- Developed by EGAT.

Conventional approach step #1: Demand forecasts (vs. actual demand)

Conventional planning problems Process Problem Citizens and consumers have no role in decisions No consideration of alternatives: Renewables DSM Cogeneration No accountability to ensure that the plan is appropriate or least-cost EGAT Peak demand +15% reserve = minimum generating capacity Specify new generators & transmission (PDP) Only considers gas/coal/big hydro Ministry of Energy endorses plan NEPC Approve Cabinet Acknowledge

Conventional approach step #2: Power development plan Generation capacity = peak demand + 15%

Problems Little transparency Little accountability Little participation No consideration of alternatives DSM Cogeneration Renewables

Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) – a way forward? Integrated Resource Planning (IRP or least cost planning) has origins in the 1980’s. Widely implemented by many utilities, especially in USA The principle of IRP is that customers do not actually need kWh, instead they require the services that are provided by electricity: “warm houses, light, and cold beer”. Note – focus is on consumers needs for energy services, not simply kWh of supply.

Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) – what is it? Services can either be met by building new power plants, or by increasing efficiency of use. IRP is a systematic planning framework to meet consumers needs for energy services in a way that best meets multiple objectives for resource use Requires consideration of energy demand, energy supply, environment, costs, and other factors all together An integrated resource plan states a utility’s preferred strategy for meeting consumers’ needs over the long term—for example, 20 years Goal of IRP: develop plans to meet energy needs of society efficiently, and at lowest possible cost

Challenge… How to strategically push planning to include: Greater transparency, accountability, and participation (TAP) Real inclusion of alternatives in ways that address risk and environmental benefits of these technologies DSM Renewables Cogen

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