มองพัฒนาการเศรษฐกิจไทยผ่านกรอบ Daron Acemoglu ธานี ชัยวัฒน์ คณะเศรษฐศาสตร์ จุฬาลงกรณ์มหาวิทยาลัย งานสัมมนา “เศรษฐศาสตร์สามกรอบ: มองเศรษฐกิจการเมืองไทยผ่านแนวคิดเศรษฐศาสตร์สามสำนัก” วันจันทร์ที่ 3 สิงหาคม 2558 เวลา 13:30-16:00 น. ณ คณะเศรษฐศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยธรรมศาสตร์ ท่าพระจันทร์

#เรามาถึงจุดนี้ได้ยังไง คำถามที่ต้องตอบ #เรามาถึงจุดนี้ได้ยังไง Political Instability Middle Income Trap  Government Instability Policy Discontinuity

Introduction Assumption Explanation Extension Implication โครงร่างการนำเสนอ Introduction Assumption Explanation Extension Implication

ขอบเขตการวิเคราะห์ของ Acemoglu อยู่ตรงไหนของเศรษฐศาสตร์สถาบัน? Introduction ขอบเขตการวิเคราะห์ของ Acemoglu อยู่ตรงไหนของเศรษฐศาสตร์สถาบัน?

Economic System = Allocation of Economic Resources Institutional Economic Framework Geography Culture Politics Political MACRO-economics Political MICRO-economics Economic System = Allocation of Economic Resources Political System = Allocation of Power Resources

political system allocates “de jure” power + “de facto” power inequality by nature, still inequality in society equality by nature, but inequality in society political system allocates “de jure” power + “de facto” power inequality by nature, but equality in society equality by nature, still equality in society = inclusive institutions Why Nations Fail

Democracy is defined as all individuals can vote, and their voting influences which social choices and policies are adopted. political system allocates “de jure” power + “de facto” power inequality by nature, but equality in society equality by nature, still equality in society

Assumption in a simple model

Fundamental Assumptions economic-based: economic incentives on political outcomes conflict: different groups have opposing interests over political outcomes == political institutions political institutions play a central role of solving conflict

Some Model Assumptions rationality: individuals have well-defined preferences over outcomes or the consequences of their actions unique policy instrument: income tax rate balanced budget under bureaucratic cost: two-class society:

Explanation in a simple model

Voter’s Decision Making

poor rich the poor prefers high tax rate (= high transfer) the rich prefers low tax rate (= low transfer) 13

Under Full Democracy The poor is majority >> The poor sets tax rate for the whole society. p is set for the whole society, not r. If inequality exists (yp << yr), Transferp >> Transferr, p >> r. Conflict between rich and poor exists. Under full democracy: no conflict iff no inequality

Under Full Autocracy Elites control de jure power, and citizens can exercise de facto power. Elites set tax rate under revolution constraint. Citizens can make revolution (R);

Under Full Democracy Citizens control de jure power, and citizens can exercise de facto power. Citizens set tax rate under coup constraint. Elites can make coup (C);

Democratization Start with Nondemocratic Regime with Inequality

Democratization Start with Nondemocratic Regime with Inequality

Democratization Start with Nondemocratic Regime with Inequality

Democratization Start with Nondemocratic Regime with Inequality

Explanation a case of Thailand

Democratization Start with Nondemocratic Regime with Inequality

Democratization The rich must choose democratic path.

Democratization Tax rate under democracy is too high for the rich.

Democratization Political instability (vicious cycle) path of Thailand

specific for Thai society Some Extensions specific for Thai society

Role of Middle Class Middle class can be either leader of the poor or buffer of the rich.

Ideological Bias People have some biases over some political parties. no convergence, conflict persists

for the future of Thailand Implication for the future of Thailand

2. Only way to reduce conflict is to reduce inequality. 1. Under inequality, political market and economic market cannot be in equilibrium at the same time, always. 2. Only way to reduce conflict is to reduce inequality. If inequality exists, conflict exists. 3. Effective way to reduce inequality (to reduce conflict) is on pre-tax income, not post-tax income. eg. ภาษีที่ดิน ภาษีทรัพย์สิน

4. Bureaucratic cost, including corruption, not only decreases efficiency, but also increases conflict. 5. Almost full democracy is better to reduce conflict in society with high inequality, and near democracy is better than near autocracy. >> in the aspect of INCLUSIVENESS 6. Inclusion of Middle Class and the poor and creating political arena are important for democratization.

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