งานนำเสนอกำลังจะดาวน์โหลด โปรดรอ

งานนำเสนอกำลังจะดาวน์โหลด โปรดรอ

In-Depth ASEAN 2015 Presented by Monsinee Keeratikrainon, Ph.D. February 26, 2015.


งานนำเสนอเรื่อง: "In-Depth ASEAN 2015 Presented by Monsinee Keeratikrainon, Ph.D. February 26, 2015."— ใบสำเนางานนำเสนอ:

1 In-Depth ASEAN 2015 Presented by Monsinee Keeratikrainon, Ph.D. February 26, 2015

2 About Author Positions held: Executive Advisor, McKansys (Thailand) Partner, Deloitte (Thailand and Southeast Asia) Country Director, Frost & Sullivan (Thailand) Delivery Head, Wipro Technologies Senior Consultant, True Corporation Product Manager, British Telecom Academic works: Guest Lecturer, Mahidol University College of Management (International MBA) P/T Lecturer, Assumption Univeristy, Faculty of Science and Technology Publication: “Development of Telecommunications Infrastructure and Policy in Thailand: A Case Study in Political Economic View of Telecommunications” (2010, Lambert Publishing House) “Strategy Cookbook” (2013, McKansys ‘s Copyrighted Handbook) Education: Master’s and Ph.D., majoring in Telecommunications, Temple University (USA) 1997-2001

3 Agenda Understanding AEC Opportunities in ASEAN Market AEC Readiness Preparation

4 What will happen after AEC? ASEAN will become a single market and production hub 0% import & export tax No custom barriers Establishing ASEAN Trade Repositary ( แหล่งเก็บ รักษาข้อมูล การค้า อาเซียน ) ASEAN investors are free to invest in service sector (70%) Integration of logistics and transportation systems Free movement of labors in 8 MRA categories Regional hub of production and sourcing Integration of capital markets

5 Opportunity for Thailand

6 Country Highlights 6 Indonesia Manufacturing sector has been the largest contributor, followed by argriculture and consumer businesses In 2013, Indonesia hits the highest growth record in the tourism industry. It contributed 8.4 percent to the economy. Malaysia Electronics and electrical - more than half of industrial exports Biggest palm oil exporter, second largest producer in ASEAN (about 6% of GDP) Singapore 72% of GDP in service sector, i.e. financial, ICT Regional hub of MNCs, leading AEC initiatives Remaining industrial sector is high-tech Phillipines Electronics sector used to dominate ($21 billion value) but in 2016 BPO is expected to exceed at $26 billion. World’s largest BPO center Biggest export of education professionals Myanmar Lowest BMI’s Business Envionroment Rating in ASEAN, second lowest in Asia after N. Korea Prone to economic mismanagement due to leapfrogging (like Vietnam). No proper protocol to control is in place. Basic infrastructure, i.e. ICT and utilities are still limited and not stable. Gas and mineral are highest exported goods (56% of total) Initiated excitement from awarding offshore exploration licenses in oil & gas and building 3 major seaports with support from Japan, China, Thailand Big benefit to tourism sector, from 1million tourists in 2012 to 3 million in 2015. Cambodia The next Vietnam, driven by agri, 38% GDP Biggest manufacturing is garment, 16% GDP and 45% of manufacturing workers Construction sector growth at 30% per annum Tourists rise to hit 5 million in 2015, almost 20% growth for the past 5 years. High short-term political risk, until CPP reform Big income gap, need strong population control Vietnam Start 2013, inflation stabilized, real GDP growth recognized Biggest sectors are food and beverage (many export to Cambodia and Lao) and also textiles (2.2 illion workers) High growth in ICT & electronics, followed by automotive Lao Long-term risk from 1) corruption 2) relying on Hydropower 3) poverty and ethnic gaps Agriculture accounts for 27.98% of GDP and employing 85% of the population Besides trading and consumer business as the second largest GDP contributor, garment is heavily promoted

7 7 CLMV is emerged as major “new export destination” for Thailand. Growth especially noted in Myanmar, Lao, and Cambodia (Average 7-7.5% GDP growth accordingly). Consumer goods, especially commodity products (rubber, refined oil, chemicals and materials) are increasingly exported with support from removal of tariff from AEC and more development of transport links. CLMV trade-off between politicalrisks and economic growth

8 8 Strong growth in consumption in almost all sectors, especially in emerging SEA countries, i.e. Indonesia and Vietnam. Promising opportunity in consumer business and imported goods Licensing and more investments in infrastructure driving economic growth Foreign Investment Rise of Middle Class Young Workers Urbanization More Imported Goods ASEAN Growth Accelerators ASEAN Growth Accelerators

9 AEC Readiness Preparation

10 3 pillars of dianogsis ขั้นตอนการตรวจสุขภาพธุรกิจ (AEC CHECK - UP STEPS ) Step 1 3-Pillar AEC Disruptors Assessment Step 2 Business Environment Diagnosis Step 3 AEC-ready Organization Alignment

11 3 pillars of dianogsis การวิเคราะห์ความผันผวน (D ISRUPTORS ) จาก AEC เปิดเสรีการค้าสินค้า เปิดเสรีการค้าบริการ เคลื่อนย้ายแรงงาน ฝีมืออย่างเสรี เปิดเสรีเคลื่อนย้าย เงินทุน เปิดเสรีการลงทุน ลดภาษีเหลือร้อยละ 0 ในปี 2553 ยกเว้น CLMV ปี 2558 เปิดเสรีบริการเร่งรัด 4 สาขา ได้แก่ ICT (e-ASEAN), สุขภาพ, ท่องที่ยว, โลจิสติกส์ ลงนาม MRA วิชาชีพ 8 สาขา ได้แก่ วิศวกร พยาบาล สถาปนิก นักสำรวจ แพทย์ ทันตแพทย์ นักบัญชี มัคคุเทศน์ เชื่อมโยงตลาดทุน และพัฒนาตลาดพันธบัตร พร้อมมาตรการเปิดเสรีบัญชีทุน ส่งเสริมและคุ้มครองการลงทุนระหว่างประเทศในอาเซียน ด้วยหลักการ National Treatment เพื่อสนับสนุน Risk Opportunity Readiness 3 pilliars of analysis Industry Factors Step 1

12 3 pillars of dianogsis Blue Ocean รุก 100% Red Ocean รุกรับ 50:50 Opportunity High Risk Low High รับ 100% Monitor รอจังหวะ Guarding Readiness Strike Zone วิเคราะห์สภาพแวดล้อมธุรกิจ B USINESS E NVIORONMENT D IANOGSIS Step 2

13 ความพร้อม คือ จุดเปลี่ยนสู่ความสำเร็จ Step 2

14 Step 3 พัฒนาแผนธุรกิจให้รองรับ AEC (AEC- READY ORGANIZATION )


16 A LIGNING O RGANIZATION WITH AEC ROADMAP The new quality management approach Sales/Marketing Customer Support Product R&D IT Operation Sales/Marketing PR/CSR HR VM Step 3


18 Brainstroming Exercise How does your industry impact from AEC disruptors?

19 Follow me at www.facebook.com/aecgeek Email: monsinee.kee@gmail.commonsinee.kee@gmail.com

ดาวน์โหลด ppt In-Depth ASEAN 2015 Presented by Monsinee Keeratikrainon, Ph.D. February 26, 2015.


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