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Www.14iacc.org www.iacconference.org www.twitter.com/14iacc Governance and Power Development Planning in Thailand Suphakit Nuntavorakarn Healthy Public.

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งานนำเสนอเรื่อง: "Www.14iacc.org www.iacconference.org www.twitter.com/14iacc Governance and Power Development Planning in Thailand Suphakit Nuntavorakarn Healthy Public."— ใบสำเนางานนำเสนอ:

1 Governance and Power Development Planning in Thailand Suphakit Nuntavorakarn Healthy Public Policy Foundation and National Independent Commission on Environment and Health (Provisional) 13 November 2010

2 Power Development Plan (PDP) and its importance PDP is the long-term strategic plan of the Thai power sector (15-20 years timeframe) PDP determines the future investment - how many and which types of power plant? –For example, total investment of PDP billion USD PDP also determines the future impacts of the power sector, including environmental, economic, social, and health impacts

3 Aim toward constructive engagement to encourage good governance Develop and communicate the concept and assessment direction to the stakeholders since the beginning period Participate and observe the relevant meetings and forums, as well as arrange the public forum on Power Planning for local communities and energy networks Through the multi-stakeholders Advisory Committee, develop the indicators as well as review the draft report Electricity Governance in Thailand, 2 nd Assessment ( )

4 Electricity Governance Assessment (2 nd Assessment) The part on Power Development Planning2007 Apply the indicators from EGT and review the draft report by multi-stakeholders advisory committee Comprise of four parts, 14 indicators –Transparency and access to information –Participation –Capacity –Accountability and redress mechanism

5 Electricity Governance Assessment on PDP2007 Many governance problems in the PDP2007, reflecting from many indicators in all four parts Leading to questions for the approval of the PDP2007 and then, problems in the implementation, for example –much higher fuel price than the assumptions in the PDP –conflicts and protests in all four IPP projects and none can proceed to construction until the present

6 The key recommendation from EGT on PDP

7 The policy for Power Development Planning 2010 On 7 th October 2009, Ministry of Energy announced the ‘Green PDP’ policy for PDP2010 –Systematic public participation process –Reduce GHG emission from PDP2007 –Introducing ‘End-Use’ approach for demand forecast –Following the targets in the Renewable Energy Development Plan by Ministry of Energy –Open for different PDP options and performing Impact Assessment to compare these options

8 Governance problems of the recent Power Development Plan MoE made the first draft of PDP2010 since January 2010 without any public inputs or participation MoE made decision not to use the ‘End-Use Approach’ study, commissioned by themselves

9 Governance problems of the recent Power Development Plan The first public hearing on draft PDP2010 on 17 th Feb., while the ‘Long-term GDP Growth’ study, commissioned by MoE is not finished yet. The second public hearing on 8 th Mar. on draft PDP2010, only four days after a technical hearing on the ‘Long-term GDP Growth’ study

10 Governance problems of the recent Power Development Plan The Senate Sub-Committee on PDP arranged two public forums on 4 th and 11 th March, with representative of MoE said that ‘they will postpone the submission for approval’ due to the ‘Red Shirt’ protest and demonstration The National Energy Policy Council approved PDP2010 on 12 th March and the government approved on 23 rd March, during severe political conflicts in the society

11 Installed Capacity at the end of 2030 Unit : MW - Nuclear 1000 MW5,000 (5โรง) - CCGT16,670 (19โรง) - Imported coal8,400 (13โรง) - SPP Co-Gen.6,919 - Renewables (VSPP, EGAT)5,348 - Import from neighboring countries11,669 Installed Capacity at the end of ,213 New Installed Capacity54,005 Decommission - 17,671 Installed Capacity at the end of ,547 PDP2010 GDP Base case New power plants New power plants กำลังผลิตไฟฟ้า

12 PDP2010 : (GDP กรณีฐาน) PDP2010 (GDP Base case) Installed Capacity by fuel type Renewables Import Gas Imported coal Nuclear

13 An Alternative PDP Needed new capacity - Peak demand 52,890 MW in Reserve Margin at 15% would need 60,824 MW in Not 65,547 MW in 2030 as determined in PDP Need better arrangement of all Installed Capacity

14 14 DSM in PDP2010 ปี MW240 Saving target of T5 high efficiency light bulb program ปี MW ปี MW ,2041,7882,2862,6552,853 ปี MW3,0933,3333,5733,8134,0534,2934,5334,7735,0135,2535,4935,733 Saving target of DSM program for Save 0.3% of the peak demand in 20 years

15 Ref. : EPPO 29/09/ showNewsDetail.aspx?NewsOID=4701&GroupOID=7& SubGroupOID=22&ObjectID=3 Average saving of 1,170 GWh/year Ref. : EPPO 17 th Feb html Press meeting by MoE “T5 high efficiency light bulb program will save around 8,708 GWh per year or reduce the expenses of 26,124 million Baht per year” DSM in PDP2010

16 Save 12% in 10 years and 29% in 20 ปี

17 DSM&EE Potential in the Industrial Sector Financially viable potential, around 42% of total demand in the Industrial Sector (Tira Foran, 2010) Consider achievable savings and achievable facilities Market potential in 10 year –Save 10% of total demand in the sector –Around 10,498 GWh, 1,680 MW

18 An Alternative PDP Renewable Energy - Follow the High Renewables scenario of the draft PDP Target of 8,581 MW in Adjust the growth to achieve the goal of 5,608 MW in the Renewable Energy Development Plan by MoE

19 Fast Growth of Renewable Energy in Thailand

20 Numbers of Renewable Energy Projects applying for Investment Promotion Number of Projects Total Investment (billion Baht)

21 An Alternative PDP Co-generation and Tri-generation, that have much higher energy efficiency, when compared to conventional power plants - Follow the target in the draft PDP2010 8,631 MW in But will rebuild the existing projects, which will be retired during ,798 MW Repowering, or building new power plant at the site of retired plant –13,600 MW

22 An Alternative PDP รายการเมกะวัตต์ New Installed Capacity ,625 Better arrangement of all Installed Capacity 5,344 Demand Side Management (15% of the Peak Demand) 8,136 Renewable energy8,581 Co-generation and Tri-generation10,429 Repowering13,600 Can decrease the new installed capacity 46,090 New Power Plant Projects needed for ,535

23 Strategic Impact Assessment on different PDP options Impact on energy security Import burden and GDP contribution GHG emission Air pollution and waste Health impacts Job creation Should be share and discuss through public deliberation process

24 Resource potential for generic coal, gas & wind resources shown for typical unit size. Additional potential is available at comparable costs. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Source: Northwest Power and Conservation Council DSM/EE is the cheapest energy option, but PDP2010 chose the expensive ones and try to make them look cheap, like coal and nuclear Comparison of electricity cost from different options in Pacific Northwest, USA.

25 Investment and fuel costs in PDP 2010 โรงไฟฟ้า กำลังผลิต เงินลงทุน (ปี 2552) Heat Rate อายุ การใช้งาน ราคาเชื้อเพลิง (ปี 2563) ต้นทุน (บาท/kWh) (ปี 2563) (เมกกะวัตต์)($/kW)(Btu/kWh)(ปี)($/MMbtu) APEPรวม โรงไฟฟ้าถ่านหิน8001,5509, โรงไฟฟ้านิวเคลียร์10003,08710, โรงไฟฟ้าถ่านหิน (CCS)8002,6329, โรงไฟฟ้าพลังความร้อนร่วม (Gas Existing) , โรงไฟฟ้าพลังความร้อนร่วม (Marginal Gas) , โรงไฟฟ้ากังหันแก๊ส , โรงไฟฟ้านิวเคลียร์ ราคารวม - Power Plant Equipment - Site Preparation & Civil Work - Raw Water System - Land & Land Right - ระบบเก็บรักษาและกำจัดกากเชื้อเพลิง - อื่นๆ หมายเหตุ โรงไฟฟ้าถ่านหิน - ใช้เทคโนโลยี Supercritical หรือ Ultra Supercritical - ใช้ถ่านหินนำเข้าประเภท Bituminous - ติดตั้งระบบ FGD

26 Prices in the last 10 years (US$/MMBTU) ที่มา : australian&months=300 australian&months=300 oil-dubai&months=300 Fuel prices in PDP2010

27 The problematic regulation and conflicts of interests

28 Using Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) as the main criteria for setting electricity tariff may lead to over investment since more investment means more profit Strong regulation on investment plans is needed, but the Regulators still lack of data, knowledge, and human resources to check and balance The approval of the tariff is still with the National Energy Policy Council ROIC and Investment Efficiency ROIC = Net profit after tax Investment EGAT 8.4% MEA PEA 4.8% Result : Over Demand Forecast and prefer high investment options

29 The cycle of supporting more investment under ‘monopoly’ power Over Demand Forecast Power Planning that prefer high investment options Electricity tariff that allow the pass on of excess costs to consumers Benefits of utilities, energy companies, etc

30 Ft : Fuel Adjustment Charge EGAT: a part of the electricity tariff that increase or decrease automatically, according to changes in fuel costs and other uncontrol costs The mechanism to pass on the costs to consumers, which includes –Fuel costs –Electricity price for private producers and import (including profit guarantee, compensation for inflation and exchange rate) –Expenses according to government policies (e.g. Community Development Funds, ‘Adder’ for renewable energy, etc.) –Compensation for lower sale (or over investment)

31 PTT MEA EGAT Banpu RATCH บริษัท ราชบุรี โฮลดิ้ง จำกัด Thai Oil Plc. บริษัท ไทยออยล์ จำกัด Thai Oil Power บริษัท ไทยออยล์ จำกัด ผลิตไฟฟ้า อิสระ 700 MW CLP ผลิตไฟฟ้า ราชบุรี 3,645 MW ไตร เอนเนอยี 700 MW BLCP 1,468 MW ระยอง 1,232 MW ขนอม 824 MW แก่งคอย 1,468 MW ราชบุรี เพาเวอร์ 1,400 MW อมตะ เอ็กโก เพาเวอร์ 165 MW ทีแอลพี โคเจน 117 MW ร้อยเอ็ด กรีน 9.9 MW อมตะ เพาเวอร์ บางปะกง 112 MW กัลฟ์ ยะลา 23 MW สมุทรปราการ โคเจนเนอเรชั่น 126 MW หนองแค โคเจนเนอเรชั่น 126 MW กัลฟ์ โคเจนเนอเรชั่น 110 MW EGCO บริษัท ผลิตไฟฟ้า จำกัด Gluf Electric บริษัท กัลฟ์ อิเลคทริค จำกัด Glow Energy Glow IPP 713 MW บริษัท โกลว์ ไอพีพี จำกัด ผลิตไฟฟ้า และน้ำเย็น 50% 15% 14.85%80%70.3% 100% 35% 30% 35% 45% 14.99% 22.42%25.41% 50% 100% 25% 100%50% 100% โกลว์ พลังงาน 358 MW โกลว์ เอสพีพี1 124 MW โกลว์เอสพีพี2/ โกลว์เอสพีพี3 514 MW Power Business 15% ราชบุรี อัลลัยแอนซ์ 24%56% 54.99% 26%

32 Conflict of Interests in Ministry of Energy The exception in the National Energy Policy Council Act B.E.2551 (2008) Section 5/1. A Member of the National Energy Policy Council shall: (2) not hold any post in a juristic entity operating a business related to the generation, transmission or distribution of non- renewable energy or electricity, except for the case that the Member of the National Energy Policy Council is a civil servant, who has been assigned by the government or by the Board of a given state-owned enterprise to assume a post of Board Member or any other post in that state-owned enterprise operating an energy-related business or in a juristic entity of which the state-owned enterprise is a shareholder.

33 The exception in the Standard Characteristic for Board and Staff of State-owned Enterprise B.E.2550 (2008) Section 6 Board member in State-owned Enterprise shall: (10) not hold any post in a juristic entity that get the concession, joint venture, or has the link to the State-owned Enterprise, except for the case that has been assigned by the State-owned Enterprise to be Chair of the board, board member, or executive staffs Conflict of Interests in Ministry of Energy

34 Examples (Data in 2008) Role in the Government Role in the private sector Mr.Por nchai Rujipra pa Secretary- General, Ministry of Energy Chair of the Board, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand National Energy Policy Council Board, Electricity Generating Company (EGCO) (resign in 2007) Chair, Sub- Committee on Electricity Demand Forecast Chair of the Board, PTT (resign in 2007) Chair, Committee on PDP Revision Chair of the Board, PTT Chemical, PTT Aromatics and Refineries Chair, Committee of Energy Fund Administrative Institute Chair of the Board,

35 Example Annual benefits to Chair of the Board, PTT in 2008 Mr.Norkhun Sittipong, Deputy Secretary-General, Ministry of Energy Baht Role in the private sector Meeting Allowan ce BonusTotal Chair of the Board 770,00 0 2,200,00 0 2,900, 000 Role in the Government sector SalaryAddition for Executive position Total Deputy Secretary- General, Ministry of Energy 804, ,000 1,056,000

36 National Energy Policy Council, Chaired by PM Energy Policy Administrative Committee, Chaired by Energy Minister Sub-committee on EGAT Coordination Sub-committee on Demand Forecast Sub-committee on PDP Sub-committee on an IPP project Sub-committee on Waste-to-Energy Sub-committee on Energy Eff. Std. Sub-committee on Hydropower Sub-committee on DSM Sub-committee on Community Development Funds Sub-committee on Environment and Energy Sub-committee on Renewable Energy Energy Policy and Planning Office, MoE is secretariat of the Sub- committees Secretary-General or the Deputy Secretary-Generals is the chair of the Sub-committees

37 Recommendations to improve the PDP process Change the ROIC to Performance-based regulation –Introduce Contracted Demand to large electricity users (e.g. more than 10 MW) Improve the Ft by excluding the compensation for lower sale DSM should be considered as one investment option for electricity supply Compare various draft PDPs, according to Government policies and planning objectives –Integrated Resource Planning; IRP –Various forums, dialogue, etc. for public deliberation

38 Toward Reflexive Governance in the PDP process

39 Thank you for your attention


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