7-11-2007 ดร. จิรพล สินธุนาวา 4 Greenhouse Gases Combustion of fossil fuels and forest fires Water vapor Animal husbandry, irrigated agriculture and oil extraction Modified from Dr. Chirapol Sinthunawa Combustion of fossil fuels and ploughing farm soils Protective layer in the upper atmosphere from UV radiation. If excessive produced caused air pollution such as smog & fog Use of refrigerators, air conditioners, aerosol spray and cleaning agents cause depletion of atmospheric ozone layer
Source : IPCC …and “climate change” is happening!! “ Global climate change is happening !” Loaded greenhouse gases by man- made at atmosphere Emitted CO 2 by burning fossil fuels for power and by deforestation CH 4 released from paddy field, animal husbandry and landfills
CO 2 levels will arise another twice times by the year 2100.
USA, Saudi Arabia released highest CO2 per head of population in the world. Thailand
The Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer In 1981 the United Nations Environment Organization has established the legal and technical working group for drafting to achieve agreements in international treaties to resolve the damage called the Vienna Convention on ozone layer protection. Contains a pledge to cooperate in research and surveillance data exchange volume Emissions and destroy the ozone layer as well as control the operation of the Convention to the future with the Vienna Convention The Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer adopted in March 1985, entered into force, 1988 by 28 countries Source: Hazardous Substances Control Bureau
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer To have negotiated the draft regulations and measures to prevent the destruction of the ozone layer under the Vienna Convention, which the draft was completed in the short time on 16 September 1987 at City Diamond Three Seasons of Canada in 47 countries worldwide, entered into force, 1989 Currently, 184 countries around the world have jointly ratified the Vienna Convention included Thailand
Thailand's role Must take steps to reduce and stop using the substances in accordance with the specified period. Must report the amount of controlled substance to UNEP who serves as the Secretariat of the Protocol. Department of Industrial Works Ministry of Industry as the primary agency responsible conducted studies in amount of substances destroying the ozone layer in different industry sectors and the import volume controls destroying substances. National Plan of Thailand: to stop using substances that destroy the ozone layer and prepared for the period of disuse substances destroying the ozone layer.
Increasing sea-levels will lead to costal erosion Photo: @ Greenpeace/Jeremy Sutton-Hibbert Photo: www.allposters.com Increasing sea-levelsIncreasing sea-levels Increasing Strong windIncreasing Strong wind What if…Climate Change?
Changes in the Claciers at Shrong Himal, Nepal over 26 years Source : Nagoya University, http://snowman.hyarc.nagoya-u.ac.jp
Impact of Climate Change: How does it all relate to me? Event-based Change in 21 centuryImpact on Human Health Warmer Temperatures and stagnant air masses Increased risk of Diseases Unsafe food. Animal as reservoir/amplifying vector/transmitter of pathogens. Heavy precipitation events Flash Floods and Land slides Costal erosion Reduced crop yields Intense weather events (Cyclones, Storms) Loss of Life, injuries, life long handicaps. Diseases outbreak. Damage of Animals/Insects/Plant Ecosystems. Droughts and Floods Reduced crop yields. Reduced electricity and power production. Monsoon seasons change in regionPhenomenon Droughts and Floods
Weather events VS Impacts on human health (1) Heat stroke, Respiratory dis. Cardio-vascular illness Heat waves / air pollution Warmer temp. & disturbed rainfall patterns Vector-borne diseases:
Changes in climate may alter the distribution of important vector species and may increase the spread of disease. สำนักโรคติดต่ออุบัติใหม่ กรมควบคุมโรค กระทรวงสาธารณสุข
Water/ food- borne diseases: cholera, harmful algae bloom, etc. Heavy precipitation events Malnutrition & Starvation Psychosocial Stress Droughts Weather events VS Impacts on human health (2)
Marine HABs: Toxins & Toxicity Diarrheic, Paralytic, Neurotoxic, Amnestic shellfish poison, Ciguatera fish poison (DSP, PSP, NSP, ASP, CFP) Freshwater HABs Toxins Hepatoxins, Neurotoxins All are blue-green algae (cyanobacteria) Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB) & Global warming Expansion of water surface Warmers temp & longer duration Tendency to be toxic strains “Especially temperate zone”
Death, Injuries Damage infrastructure Diseases related to extreme climates eg. Leptospirosis Social problems Psychosocial Stress Cyclones, Storms, flooding Disappearance of Land Migration Social conflict Stress Weather events VS Impacts on human health (3) Sea level rise & Coastal storms
Projected impacts of global warming in Asia (1) Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia particularly in large river basins is projected to decrease due to climate change which, along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion people. Source: IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, April 2007
Projected impacts of global warming in Asia (2) Coastal areas, especially heavily- populated mega-delta regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some mega-deltas flooding from the rivers. Climate change is projected to impinge on sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanisation, industrialisation, and economic development. Source: IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, April 2007
Projected impacts of global warming in Asia (3) Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia due to projected changes in hydrological cycle associated with global warming. Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia. Source: IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, April 2007
It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while it could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid 21 st century. Taken together and considering the influence of rapid population growth and urbanization, the risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries. Projected impacts of global warming in Asia
Source: Dr. Chirapol Sintunawa 12-10-2007 Southeast Asia if West sheet melted (17-foot rise) LocationVolume(km 3 )Potential sea-Level rise (m) East Antarctic ice sheet26,039,20064.80 West Antarctic ice sheet3,262,0008.06 Antarctic Peninsula227,100.46 Greenland2,620,0006.55 All other ice caps, ice field, and valley glaciers 180,000.45 Total32,328,30080.32
Slightly increasing temperature around 1-2 °C Summer season will be longer 1-2 months Winter season will be shorter 1-2 months Rainy season remains unchanged BUT water volume will increase 10-20% Uncertain season interval changed dramatically ( Extreme scenario ) Climate Change: Study Impact to Thailand Climate change tend to be : higher and longer temperatures BUT not dryness What if Climate Change effected Thailand? Encourage to conduct various of continued-studies and brain storming
Impacts in Thailand Sea Level Increasing sea-levels approximately 0.09 – 0.88 meters will lead to costal erosion. Gulf of Thailand Erosion crisis worse than the Andaman Sea; six areas crisis included Bangkok, Rayong, Petchaburi down to Narathivas
Floods Within 3 decades, country severely affected by climate change in the frequency of extreme weather events result Floods and storms, especially in eastern coastal lines and southern area near the ocean as well as Bangkok, Hadyai and Chiangmai. Climate change may also affect diseases spread both human and animal/plants delta regions
Drou ght Drought occurs in summer caused dryness reservoir, reduced crop yields. Dryness affecting in crops produced caused farmers stress
Fog and Forest Fires Long term high temperature has been rise in key air pollutants causes respiratory diseases.
Diagnosis / Surveillance Clinical Finding, Epidemiology, Laboratory Diagnose Clinical Treatment Strictly follow guideline for IC, PPE Logistic preparation Monitor Researchers Supervise team and health education to population Selected key message Quality assurance Collecting, Recording, Analyze and report Updating new knowledge Teachers/Mentors Clinicians Reporting on time Encourage team Alerting Message Role Of Medical team to EID / PHER
Conclusion (1) Now the world is changing in many directions. Climate change and global warming caused public health problem and diseases outbreak in the world. Thailand should prepare for respond to Communicable diseases / Infectious diseases and other new/re-emerging diseases for example; Vector-Borne Disease; hemorrhagic fever, Malaria, Japanese encephalitis, Elephantiasis Food and water Borne Diseases; Diarrhea, Food Poisoning, Hepatitis Respiratory Diseases; Influenza Emerging and re-emerging Diseases; Avian Influenza, Nipah and Westnile Infectious Diseases from Natural Disaster Impact
Conclusion (2) Preparedness concepts Strengthen and Development of public Health System Surveillance and Rapid Response Enhancement of capacity building and knowledge Strengthen multi-sectoral collaboration and network
แหล่งข้อมูลเรื่อง Global Warming องค์การบริหารจัดการก๊าซเรือนกระจก (องค์การมหาชน) ; www.tgo.or.th www.tgo.or.th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ; www.ipcc.ch/ www.ipcc.ch/ World Health Organization ; www.searo.who.int www.searo.who.int
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