Monsinee Keeratikrainon, Ph.D. In-Depth ASEAN 2015 Presented by Monsinee Keeratikrainon, Ph.D. February 26, 2015

About Author Positions held: Academic works: Publication: Education: Executive Advisor, McKansys (Thailand) Partner, Deloitte (Thailand and Southeast Asia) Country Director, Frost & Sullivan (Thailand) Delivery Head, Wipro Technologies Senior Consultant, True Corporation Product Manager, British Telecom Academic works: Guest Lecturer, Mahidol University College of Management (International MBA) P/T Lecturer, Assumption Univeristy, Faculty of Science and Technology Publication: “Development of Telecommunications Infrastructure and Policy in Thailand: A Case Study in Political Economic View of Telecommunications” (2010, Lambert Publishing House) “Strategy Cookbook” (2013, McKansys ‘s Copyrighted Handbook) Education: Master’s and Ph.D., majoring in Telecommunications , Temple University (USA) 1997-2001

Agenda Understanding AEC Opportunities in ASEAN Market AEC Readiness Preparation

What will happen after AEC? No custom barriers Integration of logistics and transportation systems Establishing ASEAN Trade Repositary (แหล่งเก็บรักษาข้อมูลการค้าอาเซียน) 0% import & export tax ASEAN will become a single market and production hub Integration of capital markets Regional hub of production and sourcing Free movement of labors in 8 MRA categories ASEAN investors are free to invest in service sector (70%)

Opportunity for Thailand

Country Highlights Lao Long-term risk from 1) corruption 2) relying on Hydropower 3) poverty and ethnic gaps Agriculture accounts for 27.98% of GDP and employing 85% of the population Besides trading and consumer business as the second largest GDP contributor, garment is heavily promoted Vietnam Start 2013, inflation stabilized, real GDP growth recognized Biggest sectors are food and beverage (many export to Cambodia and Lao) and also textiles (2.2 illion workers) High growth in ICT & electronics, followed by automotive Country Highlights Phillipines Electronics sector used to dominate ($21 billion value) but in 2016 BPO is expected to exceed at $26 billion. World’s largest BPO center Biggest export of education professionals Myanmar Lowest BMI’s Business Envionroment Rating in ASEAN, second lowest in Asia after N. Korea Prone to economic mismanagement due to leapfrogging (like Vietnam). No proper protocol to control is in place. Basic infrastructure, i.e. ICT and utilities are still limited and not stable. Gas and mineral are highest exported goods (56% of total) Initiated excitement from awarding offshore exploration licenses in oil & gas and building 3 major seaports with support from Japan, China, Thailand Big benefit to tourism sector, from 1million tourists in 2012 to 3 million in 2015. Cambodia The next Vietnam, driven by agri, 38% GDP Biggest manufacturing is garment, 16% GDP and 45% of manufacturing workers Construction sector growth at 30% per annum Tourists rise to hit 5 million in 2015, almost 20% growth for the past 5 years. High short-term political risk, until CPP reform Big income gap, need strong population control Indonesia Manufacturing sector has been the largest contributor, followed by argriculture and consumer businesses In 2013, Indonesia hits the highest growth record in the tourism industry. It contributed 8.4 percent to the economy. http://www.eia.gov/countries/analysisbriefs/Indonesia/indonesia.pdf Malaysia Electronics and electrical - more than half of industrial exports Biggest palm oil exporter, second largest producer in ASEAN (about 6% of GDP) Singapore 72% of GDP in service sector, i.e. financial, ICT Regional hub of MNCs, leading AEC initiatives Remaining industrial sector is high-tech

CLMV trade-off between politicalrisks and economic growth CLMV is emerged as major “new export destination” for Thailand. Growth especially noted in Myanmar, Lao, and Cambodia (Average 7-7.5% GDP growth accordingly). Consumer goods, especially commodity products (rubber, refined oil, chemicals and materials) are increasingly exported with support from removal of tariff from AEC and more development of transport links. http://www.palmoilworld.org/sustainability.html http://www.aocs.org/Membership/FreeCover.cfm?itemnumber=18340

ASEAN Growth Accelerators Strong growth in consumption in almost all sectors, especially in emerging SEA countries, i.e. Indonesia and Vietnam. Promising opportunity in consumer business and imported goods Licensing and more investments in infrastructure driving economic growth Foreign Investment Rise of Middle Class Young Workers Urbanization More Imported Goods ASEAN Growth Accelerators

AEC Readiness Preparation

ขั้นตอนการตรวจสุขภาพธุรกิจ (AEC check-up steps) 3 pillars of dianogsis Step 1 3-Pillar AEC Disruptors Assessment Step 2 Business Environment Diagnosis Step 3 AEC-ready Organization Alignment

การวิเคราะห์ความผันผวน (Disruptors) จาก AEC Step 1 การวิเคราะห์ความผันผวน (Disruptors) จาก AEC 3 pillars of dianogsis 3 pilliars of analysis Risk Opportunity Readiness เปิดเสรีการค้าสินค้า เปิดเสรีการค้าบริการ เคลื่อนย้ายแรงงานฝีมืออย่างเสรี เปิดเสรีเคลื่อนย้ายเงินทุน เปิดเสรีการลงทุน ลดภาษีเหลือร้อยละ 0 ในปี 2553 ยกเว้น CLMV ปี 2558 เปิดเสรีบริการเร่งรัด 4 สาขา ได้แก่ ICT (e-ASEAN), สุขภาพ, ท่องที่ยว, โลจิสติกส์ Industry Factors ลงนาม MRA วิชาชีพ 8 สาขา ได้แก่ วิศวกร พยาบาล สถาปนิก นักสำรวจ แพทย์ ทันตแพทย์ นักบัญชี มัคคุเทศน์ เชื่อมโยงตลาดทุน และพัฒนาตลาดพันธบัตร พร้อมมาตรการเปิดเสรีบัญชีทุน ส่งเสริมและคุ้มครองการลงทุนระหว่างประเทศในอาเซียน ด้วยหลักการ National Treatment เพื่อสนับสนุน

วิเคราะห์สภาพแวดล้อมธุรกิจ Business Envioronment Dianogsis Step 2 วิเคราะห์สภาพแวดล้อมธุรกิจ Business Envioronment Dianogsis 3 pillars of dianogsis High Blue Ocean รุก 100% Red Ocean รุกรับ 50:50 Opportunity Readiness Strike Zone Monitor รอจังหวะ Guarding รับ 100% Low High Risk

ความพร้อม คือ จุดเปลี่ยนสู่ความสำเร็จ Step 2 ความพร้อม คือ จุดเปลี่ยนสู่ความสำเร็จ

พัฒนาแผนธุรกิจให้รองรับ AEC (AEC-ready organization) Step 3 พัฒนาแผนธุรกิจให้รองรับ AEC (AEC-ready organization)

Common Organization Roadblocks Step 3 Common Organization Roadblocks

The new quality management approach Step 3 Aligning Organization with AEC roadmap The new quality management approach Sales/Marketing Customer Support Product R&D Sales/Marketing PR/CSR IT HR Operation VM

Aligning Organization with AEC roadmap Step 3 Aligning Organization with AEC roadmap

Brainstroming Exercise How does your industry impact from AEC disruptors?

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