6 Components Of Forecasting Demand Time Frameshort-range, medium-range, long-rangeDemand Behaviortrends, cycles, seasonal patterns, random
7 Time Frame Short-range to medium-range daily, weekly monthly forecasts of sales data การควบคุมระยะสั้นup to 2 years into the future การวางแผนรวมLong-rangestrategic planning of goals, products, marketsplanning beyond 2 years into the future การวางแผนธุรกิจ
9 Demand Behavior Trend Cycle Seasonal pattern gradual, long-term up or down movementCycleup & down movement repeating over long time frameSeasonal patternperiodic oscillation in demand which repeatsRandom movements follow no pattern
10 Forms Of Forecast Movement TrendCycleDemandDemandRandommovementTimeTimeSeasonalpatternDemandDemandTrend withseasonal patternTimeTime
11 Time Series Methods Statistical methods using historical data moving averageexponential smoothinglinear trend lineAssume patterns will repeatNaive forecastsforecast = data from last periodDemand
12 Smoothing EffectsLonger-period moving averages react more slowly
13 Exponential Smoothing Averaging methodWeights most recent data more stronglyReacts more to recent changesWidely used, accurate methodFt+1 = Dt + (1 - )Ftwhere,Ft+1 = forecast for next periodDt = actual demand for present periodFt = previously determined forecast for present period= weighting factor, smoothing constant
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