งานนำเสนอเรื่อง: "ความรุนแรงที่ยืดเยื้อเรื้อรังใน สถานการณ์การเมืองที่ไม่แน่นอนก่อน การเลือกตั้ง 2554 ศรีสมภพ จิตร์ภิรมย์ศรี Deep South Watch (DSW) Center for Conflict Studies."— ใบสำเนางานนำเสนอ:
ความรุนแรงที่ยืดเยื้อเรื้อรังใน สถานการณ์การเมืองที่ไม่แน่นอนก่อน การเลือกตั้ง 2554 ศรีสมภพ จิตร์ภิรมย์ศรี Deep South Watch (DSW) Center for Conflict Studies and Cultural Diversity (CSCD) Prince of Songkla University, Pattani campus
Source: Deep South Watch
civilians soldiers policemen Defence volunteers village headmen government employees bureaucratsworking in local government teachers youths Victims of Violence by Occupations from 2004 to 2010 Source: Deep South Watch
Many complex and deep-rooted conflicts seem, empirically, to reach some “plateau” in their relationship, and become trapped in a repetitive pattern of interaction—usually involving the exchange of violent or coercive behaviors —that seems dynamic, yet stable Protracted Conflicts Christopher R. Mitchell, Berghof Handbook Dialogue Series, 15
If the trend of violence still holds, it may imply that the conflict and violence have been perpetuated. Conflict perpetuation
Many conflicts become less a matter of the original and underlying goal incompatibility, but more a matter of becoming trapped in an extended action- reaction sequence in which today’s conflict behavior by one side is a response to yesterday’s by the adversary. Dennis Sandole, 1999
What is the process model for deep south ?
Turning Point How to find alternative approach? Pre-pre Negotiation Phrase! Pre- Negotiation Phrase Negotiation Phrase Agreement Implementation New Conflict (Non- violence) Tract I Tract II Tract III ? Model Developed by Norbert Ropers
Turning Point How to find alternative approach? Pre-pre Negotiation Phrase! Pre- Negotiation Phrase Negotiation Phrase Agreement Implementation New Conflict (Non- violence) Tract I Tract II Tract III ? จุดเปลี่ยน เหตุการณ์ ขั้นก่อน - ก่อน การเจรจา ขั้นก่อน การเจรจา ขั้น การเจรจา การตก ลง ทางกา รเมือง ดำเนินกา ร สันติภาพ ความ ขัดแย้ง ใหม่ที่ ไม่ใช้ ความ รุนแรง Model Developed by Norbert Ropers
Violence Factors & Peace building Structural Violence Symbolic Violence Physical Violence Actors & Agencies 1. Independence Movements 2. State Violent Actors Actors & Agencies 1. Independence Movements 2. State Violent Actors Peace-building processes to deal with these factors
Peace Process Model
Peace Initiatives Mobilized Through Civil Society and Media Networks Peace building is considered as the discursive processes bringing about simultaneous and successive emergence of various discursive objects that are named, described, analyzed, appreciated or judged in the relation.
We emphasize on the interplay between the formation of object of discourse (s) to transform the conflicts through ideas and thought. The interplay means the fields to play The common ground Building peace objects of discourse needs broader network of civil society organizations and communication networks.
Academic knowledge/ Researches Local-National Media and communications Civil Society Movements Common Ground Self-Governance Peace Talks/Dialogues Justice Discursive Formation Model for Conflict Transformation
identity, culture, and religion As for the progress Movements produce objects of discourse and the other way round. The Discursive Processes
From brainstorming among civil society and media networks, it was found that there were 3 strategies or 3 main issues : Re-structuring the political and administrative power structure. The 23 members of the Deep South Civil Society Networks, the "People's Network for Greater Involvement in Governance of the Deep South Provinces," are currently mobilizing for a "Special Autonomous Region" under the framework of the constitution.
The Networks have accumulated its knowledge and culminated in the (Draft) Report on the Study of Special Local Governance in the Deep South under the Thai Constitution". The attempt to find a way to co-existence based on local demands is currently being modified through in-depth opinion sueveys and developed into a draft Act. In the near future, the network will use existing channels to propose laws as designated by the constitution.
Public Forum on Southern Situation
The processes would also attempt to building justice, the human rights in determining people's own life and expression of identity, culture, and religion. The injustice issue has been cronic problem on the grounds
ความไม่เป็น ธรรมต่างๆ insurgency injustice poverty lack of education crimes Population problems Self- Governance resources problem Justice problems are major concerns What is the major cause of insurgency in Southern region? Public opinions survey of local people in 2010
Public opinions survey of local people in 2011
Network activities would become a common, neutral space, engaging all parties into inclusive peace dialogue, not leaving the matter as a conflict between the state and the separatists.
In the process, peace discourses would be central issue in political space, reproducing through public opinions and media. Once the media space could bring about the political space on peace discourses, the discursive formation is successfully defined.
Social Structure/Social Values It would set in motion changing behavior and attitudes of violent actors. Source: Christopher R. Mitchell, Berghof Handbook Dialogue Series, 19 Galtung’s basic structure of conflict
Patani Metropolitan academic forums The Operation of Process Model
Raising the Southern issues and peace agenda to the political parties during the campaigns for upcoming general election …………………..
The the peace discourse formation and discursive processes will be a constitutive drive for setting the stage for changes – in leaders, in minds, in behaviors and in environments of conflicts on the deep South. The Resolutionary Changes
Change Agents? Intermediaries who are “insider- partials” ….. Intermediaries who are “outsider- neutrals” The former have a number of advantages over the latter that can enable them to operate more effectively in cultures that value third parties, understanding the interests of both adversaries, as well as an existing relationship to both.
Prospect for the Future Civil society, media networks, academics and intra-national human rights organizations are supposed to work to produce ideas about alternative futures and strategies or to build bridges between local adversaries or hold informal dialogues exploring issues of readiness for talks or underlying interests.
Who are the change agents ? How do we proceed to the condition for the pre-negotiation stage? Can we transform the conflict structure?
Roles and Challenges to International Support to the Peace Process
Key Issues Because of the long-term severity of violence, Patani conflict has become one of the hot spots in the world’s mapping of conflict regions. Increasing international concerns about the peace-building and conflict resolution in Patani region.
Central to the Patani issue is the identity politics and its consequences. The major actors and agencies are the Thai authorities, the independence movements, and different group of people in the Patani region.
Conflict Mediators Outside mediators Inside mediators Outside and inside mediators have to collaborate their actions for conflict resolution and peace building.
Roles of international Support for Patani’s Peace Process ASEAN Countries Malaysia Indonesia International organizations -OIC -EU -UNDP -World Bank
Developed countries USA UK Germany Australia Netherlands Switzerland Japan
HD Center PACTA Asia Foundation JICA Sasakawa Peace Foundation