Generation Plan System Control and Operation Division

งานนำเสนอเรื่อง: "Generation Plan System Control and Operation Division"— ใบสำเนางานนำเสนอ:

1 Generation Plan 2009-2013 System Control and Operation Division
Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand

2 Content Electricity Demand Forecasting New Coming Projects
07/08/07 Content Electricity Demand Forecasting New Coming Projects Fuel Price Forecasting and Variable Cost Constraints Commercial and Policy Constraints Technical Constraints Planning Strategy Generation Plan Conclusion System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 2

3 สัดส่วนการใช้ไฟฟ้าปี 2551
07/08/07 สัดส่วนการใช้ไฟฟ้าปี 2551 รวมอุตสาหกรรม 51.2% การใช้ไฟฟ้ารวม 146,835 GWh 3 System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 3

4 ผลกระทบจากวิกฤตเศรษฐกิจโลก
07/08/07 ผลกระทบจากวิกฤตเศรษฐกิจโลก 4 System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 4

5 ผลกระทบจากวิกฤตเศรษฐกิจโลก (Sector)
07/08/07 ผลกระทบจากวิกฤตเศรษฐกิจโลก (Sector) 5 System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 5

6 ผลกระทบจากวิกฤตเศรษฐกิจโลก (Industrial)
07/08/07 ผลกระทบจากวิกฤตเศรษฐกิจโลก (Industrial) 6 System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 6

7 คาดการณ์การเติบโตของเศรษฐกิจไทย
07/08/07 คาดการณ์การเติบโตของเศรษฐกิจไทย สภาพัฒน์ฯ (สศช.) -1.0 ถึง 0.0 ธ.กรุงเทพ -2.0 ถึง 0.0 คลัง (สศค.) -3.0 ถึง -2.0 ธ.กสิกรไทย -1.5 ถึง 0.2 ธปท. น้อยกว่า 0.0 ธ.นครหลวงไทย -0.8 กรณ์ จาติกวณิช -3.0 ถึง -5.0 ม.หอการค้าไทย -2.8 ถึง -0.8 สุชาติ ธาดาดำรงเวช -4.0 TDRI 0.0 โอฬาร ไชยประวัติ สมาคมโบรกเกอร์ -1.8 GDP Growth (%) ไตรมาส 1 ไตรมาส 2 ไตรมาส 3 ไตรมาส 4 2552 - 7.0 - 5.5 - 3.5 + 0.1 - 4.0 2551 2553 2554 2555 2556 + 2.6 + 2.0 + 4.5 + 5.5 + 6.0 7 System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 7

8 การกระจายการเติบโตผลิตภัณฑ์รายกลุ่ม
07/08/07 การกระจายการเติบโตผลิตภัณฑ์รายกลุ่ม ไตรมาส / ปี GDP อุตสาหกรรม ธุรกิจ อื่นๆ สัดส่วนปี 51 100 % 48 % 41 % 11 % 1 / 52 - 7.0 - 7.84 - 6.45 - 2.90 2 / 52 - 5.5 - 6.16 - 5.07 - 2.28 3 / 52 - 3.5 - 3.92 - 3.22 - 1.45 4 / 52 + 0.1 + 0.11 + 0.09 + 0.04 2553 + 2.0 + 2.24 + 1.84 + 0.83 2554 + 4.5 + 5.04 + 4.15 + 1.86 2555 + 5.5 + 6.16 + 5.07 + 2.28 2556 + 6.0 + 6.72 + 5.53 + 2.48 8 System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 8

9 พยากรณ์อัตราการเติบโตของการใช้ไฟฟ้ารายกลุ่ม
07/08/07 พยากรณ์อัตราการเติบโตของการใช้ไฟฟ้ารายกลุ่ม ไตรมาส / ปี อุตสาหกรรม ธุรกิจ ที่อยู่อาศัย อื่นๆ Elastic 1.1369 1.1972 440 – 475 0.6761 1 / 52 -8.91 - 7.72 + 0.95 - 1.96 2 / 52 -7.00 - 6.07 + 3.40 - 1.54 3 / 52 -4.46 - 3.86 + 2.39 - 0.98 4 / 52 0.13 + 0.11 + 3.44 + 0.03 2553 2.55 + 2.21 + 2.30 + 0.56 2554 5.73 + 4.96 + 2.08 + 1.26 2555 7.00 + 6.07 + 1.54 2556 7.64 + 6.62 + 1.68 9 System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 9

10 การใช้ไฟฟ้าทั้งประเทศรายเดือน
07/08/07 การใช้ไฟฟ้าทั้งประเทศรายเดือน 10 System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 10

11 พยากรณ์พลังงานไฟฟ้าผลิตและซื้อ กฟผ.
07/08/07 พยากรณ์พลังงานไฟฟ้าผลิตและซื้อ กฟผ. ปี ผลิตและซื้อไม่รวมส่วนที่ใช้ Pump Pump Energy ผลิตและซื้อทั้งหมด (GWh) % Growth 2551 144,481 1.23 610 -40.1 145,091 0.94 2552 139,543 -3.42 597 -2.21 140,140 -3.41 2553 143,404 2.77 634 6.23 144,038 2.78 2554 149,568 4.30 696 9.70 150,263 4.32 2555 156,392 4.56 711 2.19 157,103 4.55 2556 164,654 5.28 712 0.22 165,366 5.26 11 System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 11

12 พลังงานไฟฟ้าผลิตและซื้อ กฟผ.
07/08/07 พลังงานไฟฟ้าผลิตและซื้อ กฟผ. PDP % GDP -4% -3.41% Total Energy Demand Forecast 2009 = 140,140 GWh 12 System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 12

13 Electricity Peak and Energy 2009-2013

14 Generation Development Projects 09-11
Type Area Capacity Schedule South Bangkok 3 CCGT Metro. 710 MW Mar-09 Phu Khieo Bio (Extend) Renew N.Eastern 10 MW Jun-09 Danchang Bio (Extend) Central Bang Pa Kong 5 Eastern Jul-09 Nam Thuen 2 Hydro 920 MW Dec-09 North Bangkok 1 670 MW May-10 Siam Power Generation 1 60+30 MW Nov-10 Nam Ngum 2 596.6 MW Jan-11 National Power Supply 3 65 MW Aug-11 Renewable 90 MW Thai Power Generation 70 MW Advance Agro 3 25 MW Gheco One 1 Coal 660 MW Nov-11

15 Generation Development Projects 12-13
Type Area Capacity Schedule Thai Power Supply 2 Renew Eastern 65 MW Jan-12 SPP Co-generation CCGT Metro., Central, Eastern 924 MW Jun-12 Theun Hinboon 3 Hydro N.Eastern 220 MW Jul-12 Siam Energy Power 1 800 MW Mar-13 540 MW Jun-13 Siam Energy Power 2 Sep-13 National Power Supply 1 Coal 270 MW Nov-13 Now, some existing SPPs Co-generation are preparing to negotiate with PTTPLC for reducing DCQ due to industrial steam and electricity demand decreasing.

16 Additional Gas Supply Projects Capacity (MMSCFD) Schedule Arthit 330
07/08/07 Additional Gas Supply Projects Capacity (MMSCFD) Schedule Arthit 330 26 Apr 08 JDA-A18 to System 400 12 Nov 08 Arthit FPSO 35  120 1 May 09 / 1 Jun 09 System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 16

17 Dispatch based on Supply Source
07/08/07 PTT Dispatching PTT Dispatching West Gas East Gas 14% 100% 86% Gas Pool 2 Gas Separation Plant (GSP) 19% 7% 8% 93% 59% West Gas IND & NGV West Gas Plant East Gas Plant SPP Direct Customer East Gas IND & NGV EGAT dispatches 75% of Pool2 gas customer. System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 17

18 Well Head Price : Dec08 Supplier Base FO Price (USD/BBL)
07/08/07 Well Head Price : Dec08 Supplier Base FO Price (USD/BBL) Calculated FO Price (USD/BBL) Gas Price (Baht/MMBTU) Yadana/Yetagun 15.50 87.90 367 Erawan 10.18 57.96 142 Platong, Funan, Satun 31.06 85.41 156 Benjamas, Tantawan 15.66 104.85 170 Bongkot 13.04 261 Pailin 13.46 190 Arthit 21.70 85.72 164 JDA 13.45 182 System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 18

19 Gas Price Sensitivity when FO change 1%
07/08/07 Gas Price Sensitivity when FO change 1% System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 19

20 Well Head Price Forecast
07/08/07 Well Head Price Forecast System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 20

21 Well Head Price Forecast
07/08/07 Well Head Price Forecast System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 21

22 Variable Cost in Gas Price Structure
07/08/07 Vary Price Vary Quantities Average Well Head (Pool 2)   Margin 1.75% for IPP+EGAT 9.33% for SPP     Pipe Tariff : Demand Charge Pipe Tariff : Commodity Charge   System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 22

23 Variable Cost: Q2 Y2009 (Baht/kwh)
Fuel East Gas West Gas Fuel Oil Coal New CCGT (Since CHN-CC1) 1.08 2.10 - CCGT : GT 240 MW 1.14 2.22 GT MW 1.24 2.41 GT MW 1.30 2.54 TH Old 1.56 3.04 2.75 0.54 (Local) TH New 2.88 2.33 0.83 (Imported) Malaysia 2.35 (Price A) Laos IPP 1.70 – 2.10

24 Commercial Constraints
07/08/07 Commercial Constraints Fuel Minimum Take BLCP Imported Coal NPO Gas Minimum Take Total West Gas minimum take : >965 MMSCFD SPP Minimum Take 80% of Availability 100% of Availability Laos IPP Minimum Take : 95% of Declared Energy Non-Firm and Laos State : 100% based on plant West gas minimum consumption : 450 MMSCFD System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 24

25 Policy Constraints Total West Gas minimum take : >965 MMSCFD
07/08/07 Policy Constraints Total West Gas minimum take : >965 MMSCFD NGV demand LKB plant  5 MMSCFD for LKB since 2010 NPO plant Southern LPG production : GSP4 (KN plant) 1 TH till June 09 > 110 MMSCFD (at moment rate) Water release : hydro plants Irrigations : Dry season Fishing : Rainy season System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 25

26 Technical Constraints
07/08/07 Technical Constraints Transmission system constraints Metropolis : Must run at SB and BPK Northeastern : Udonthani Zone Southern : 600 MW (N-1), 920 MW (N-0) Gas system constraints Supply Limitation Pipe Line Limitation : SB East East Gas Minimum Consumption : 400 MMSCFD System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 26

27 Planning Strategy Gas Other Minimum Take West Gas (Jan-Dec)
07/08/07 Planning Strategy Gas Minimum Take West Gas (Jan-Dec) NPO : DCQ – Carry Forward (Oct08 – Sep09) East Gas : Marginal Fuel Other Adjust MM maintenance plan No spot coal at BLCP Minimum Take SPP. System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 27

28 07/08/07 TOP Updated Situation DCQ using in Y will postpone the advance payment clearing to 2015 and make up all TOP gas to 2019. TOP fund paid 3,600 million Baht for controlling Ft in 2008 will postpone the advance payment clearing to 2016. New TOP will be started making-up in 2019. System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 28

29 New TOP ??? (Baht/MMBTU) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 West price 345 313 265 208
07/08/07 New TOP ??? (Baht/MMBTU) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 West price 345 313 265 208 East Price 182 161 164 166 Diff. 163 152 101 42 Int. 5-7 % 296 269 228 179 Total 641 582 493 387 2019 Sell 280 Loss 361 302 213 107 @ PV DR 5% 260 220 160 88 New TOP NO Int. 5% 2 yrs., 6% 2 yrs., 7% 6 yrs. Long-term price 8 USD/MMBTU = 280 Baht/MMBTU System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 29

30 Week & Sat Use : Peak Month
07/08/07 West Gas Plan (MMSCFD) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Average Use 621 939 997 944 Week & Sat Use 691 998 1029 1033 Peak Month Feb May Sep Oct Average : Peak Month 812 1009 1028 1049 Week & Sat Use : Peak Month 851 1023 1042 1052 Max Daily Supply 1082 1085 Price (Baht/MMBTU) 345 313 265 208 Major Outage 8 days in Jan 10 days in Dec System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 30

31 07/08/07 SPP Purchasing Plan Group Cap. (MW) EP (Baht/kwh) Plan Renew 2007 - 2.00 Renew 2005 116.5 2.49 100% Renew 2001 107.8 Co-Gen Gas 1,417.5 80-81% Coal 370.0 1.70 Renew 1997 62.8 3.33 – 3.86 สำหรับ Renew 1997 และ 2001 รอการแจ้งมติ กพช. 9 มี.ค.52 โดยปัจจุบันคง Dispatch ที่ Minimum Take System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 31

32 Energy Generation by Owner

33 Energy Generation by Fuel 2009
Energy Generation and Purchase 140,140 GWh Peak Demand 21,617 MW

34 Energy Generation by Fuel 2010-2013
2011 2012 2013

35 New CCGT Reserved Shutdown
07/08/07 New CCGT Reserved Shutdown System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 35

36 Conclusion Total West Gas : Minimum Take NPO Gas : DCQ – Carry Forward
07/08/07 Conclusion Total West Gas : Minimum Take NPO Gas : DCQ – Carry Forward BLCP Coal : Meet Long Term Contract Laos IPP : Minimum Take SPP : Minimum Take Thermal Plant : Almost Reserved Shutdown Combined Cycle Plant : Dispatch up to Load System control and operation division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 36